1/5 - Canada - Nov 21 to 27: Canada is not foreseen to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with high levels of mortality. 4 Provinces in the thread
Forecasting for 13 Provinces/Territories on: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
2/5 - British Columbia is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.18), at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/5 - Saskatchewan is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.16), at high levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
4/5 - Ontario is not foreseen taking over control of its #COVID19 second wave (R-eff=1.18), at medium to high levels of activity, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
5/5 - Quebec, is close to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), plateauing at high levels, with increasing high levels of mortality, as foreseen in the 7 upcoming days.
6/5 -
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
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2/21. Ireland is slowing in landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.95), plateauing at medium level, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown from Oct 21, for 6 weeks.
3/21. France is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.75), could be < 9,400 cases/day by next week-end, however with still increasing alarming levels of mortality, foreseen for the 7 upcoming days
Lockdown from Oct 29,for 1 month.
1/10 - USA. Nov 21 to 27- All states experience rise or surge in #COVID19. Very high levels of activity, with high to very high (by mid week) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
8 states detailed in thread. renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/10 - Massachusetts has not yet taken over control of its #COVID19 second wave (R-eff=1.08), with activity still increasing at high levels, with high to very high (by mid-week) levels of mortality, as foreseen in the 7 upcoming days.
3/10 - Vermont which performed well in summertime, will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.42), at high level, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
1/7 - “The World Health Organization has advised against prescribing the drug remdesivir to #COVID19 patients in hospital, casting further doubt on the effectiveness of the only antiviral approved to treat the disease.“ ft.com/content/cc8d2f…
2/7 - “An expert WHO panel said #Remdesivir, produced by Gilead, was “not suggested for patients admitted to hospital with #COVID19, regardless of how severely ill they are, because there is currently no evidence that it improves survival or the need for ventilation.”
3/7 - “Remdesivir was last month approved for use by the US Food and Drug Administration and it was one of the cocktail of drugs given to President Donald Trump when he contracted #COVID19.”
2/21. Ireland is slowing in landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.96), plateauing at medium level, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown from Oct 21, for 6 weeks.
3/21. The Netherlands is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.90), still at high level of activity, with high levels of mortality.
Partial lockdown from Nov 03 up to 2 weeks.
2/9 - Valais has taken over control (R-eff=0.51) of its #COVID19 second wave in terms of new cases, foreseen to be landing to its safety zone by Sunday Nov 22, still experiencing very alarming but decreasing levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/9 - Geneva has taken over control (R-eff=0.69) of its #COVID19 second wave, rapidly decreasing from high to medium levels of activity, and increasing with very alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
1/12 - “Sanna Marin, Finland’s prime minister [the country with the lowest number of cases in the EU] said that the public across Europe could blame governments for closing economies and hurting their wages and employment.” ft.com/content/aa8319…
2/12 - “This will cause protests more and more, and it’s a breeding ground for populist movements across Europe. When you’re closing an economy and people’s workplaces, it will cause political instability.”
3/12 - “Populists come with easy answers to difficult problems, but their solutions are rarely the right ones,” Finland’s PM Sanna Marin added.