In previous Bull Markets, the MVRV ratio was one of the most reliable indicators of market tops.
It reached 3.96 in 2017 when Bitcoin flirted with $20k
MVRV-FF is currently at 1.96
If you believe history rhymes, this suggests we're not even close to the "euphoria" phase.
This is not investment advice. MVRV simply tracks how the overall market valuation (market cap) compares against everyone's "cost basis" (realized cap).
It spikes when market value is disproportionately higher than the value being moved on-chain.
You may notice that our MVRV figures are different.
That's because we use Free Float (FF) Market Cap instead of "total" Market Cap to determine market valuation.
FF better represents liquidity, since it removes supply that's unlikely to be in the market (e.g. BTC from 2009)
CoinMetric's @CelermajerB spearheaded this effort and wrote a post that's worth reading:
Bitcoin settled the equivalent of *2.3 trillion USD* in Epoch III
For context, Visa+Mastercard Credit Cards settled 2.6T USD in the entire United States in 2017.
It's insane that a bootstrapped, 10yr old network settles values in the same magnitude of the largest CCs in the US.
The count of addresses holding over 100k sats (0.001 BTC) sats can be seen as a proxy for adoption, and on May 1st, the network reached an ATH with over 16M addresses holding at least 100k sats 🤯