Today was another bad day for #COVID19 deaths & hospitalizations in Minnesota. But I want to focus on better news: newly reported cases went down, while testing volume went up! This is exactly what we want to see (repeated on more than one day) when looking for a possible peak. 
Now, this good news is good only in context. Even today’s “good” positivity rate is still 11.7%, far above the target of 5%. But in the context of this week’s slightly slower case growth rate and flat positivity rate, it’s slowly strengthening the case for an approaching peak.
Of course, bad reports Saturday and Sunday could change the direction of the trend again, making all this moot. All trends continue until they don’t! But compared to the ever-escalating bad news of past weeks, these possibly illusory glimmers of hope are an improvement!
One other point I was struck by: the decline in the past few days of the #COVID19 case growth rate among 20-something Minnesotans. It’s small in magnitude and only a few days old, so it coul be nothing. But it’s the biggest drop here in more than a month.
Other metrics were a lot worse, including 68 new #COVID19 deaths, taking the seven-day average up to 44 per day, a record high. But remember that deaths are a trailing indicator. They’ll be the last metric to fall when MN’s outbreak finally peaks.
Similarly, new hospitalizations are also still rising steeply. We can likely expect this metric to trail changes in cases and precede changes in deaths. (And remember, cases are still going up — just by less, especially when controlling for testing volume.)
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