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John Lichfield

21 Nov, 10 tweets, 2 min read

Time for another French Covid thread. Six days since the last. “Tentative good news” is now a clear, positive trend. New cases/acute cases are falling. The incidence rate has almost halved in 3 weeks. The death rate is high but falling slightly. 1/10

On Tuesday evening Emmanuel Macron will tell us what he makes of these figures. An end to the 2nd lockdown? Not yet, it seems. But more shops may be allowed to re-open and he may announce some kind of Xmas truce. 2/10

The best guess of experts is that the 2nd wave was slow to gather pace and will be slow to abate. Jean-François Delfraissy, presdt of Fr’s scientific council, says: “Vaccines won’t solve everything. Next year won’t be a normal year. But I see light at the end of the tunnel.”

As usual, I’ve crunched the figs for the last 7 days
What emerges is a slow retreat of the virus. There are 289 fewer C19 patients in acute care than a week ago. There are 593 fewer in hosp. The av. number of new cases daily is 26,673 - half the rate of 2 weeks ago.
4/10

The positive rate for tests has fallen to 15% (compared to 20.3% 2 weeks ago. The “incidence rate” of cases per 100,000 people has fallen to 282.9 – compared to 497 three weeks ago.
5/10

More detailed figures.
The total Covid population in intensive care in France over the last 7 days, going backwards has been: 4,582-4,653-4,775-4,854-4,919-4,896-4,871 Pressure on IC grew slightly after the first fall I reported a week ago, then dropped steadily.
6/10

New cases in the last 7 days have averaged 26,673 a day. This includes both kinds of tests now being performed.
Average in previous weeks, going backwards were: 29,413 - 53,344 -42,985- 38,364 -27,051-20,399-16,035. The curve of the 2nd Wave has flattened and fallen. 7/10

The death rate is still very high but this is the slowest of lagging indicators. In theory, deaths should start to fall sharply over the next two weeks. The av. number of deaths each day in the last 7 days was 574 – compared to 582.4 and 488.5 in previous weeks. 8/10

There have now been 48,265 Covid 19 deaths in France since March – in other words the 50,000 barrier will be broken in the next few days. This compares with the annual average ‘flu death toll of around 10,000. 9/10

Conclusion: Lockdown is working. But Macron faces a very difficult decision. If he opens shops and allows some Christmas travel will France plunge into a 3rd wave or revived 2nd wave in the New Year?
10/10

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More from @john_lichfield

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

15 Nov

Here is my latest French Covid number crunching thread with some, tentative GOOD NEWS (Hooray!) The flow of C19 patients into hospital and intensive care has slowed substantially in the last week and numbers in IC actually fell yesterday for the first time since 21 Aug.
1/10

Other good news. The positive rate for tests has fallen in the last week from 20.3% to 17.3%. The daily average of new cases has fallen sharply - to 29,413 from 53,344 last week. BUT... (bad news coming) 2/10

The daily mortality rate (most lagging of indicators) has increased once again - to 582.4 from 488.5 last week. There have been nearly 4,000 deaths in 7 days, including 1,230 in care homes. These figures approach those of the darkest days of the 1st Wave in April…. BUT
3/10

Read 10 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

12 Nov

In 10 mins or so the French PM Jean Castex will say whether there will be any changes in the second half of France’s minimum one month-long Second Lockdown. Some schools to close? Some shops to open? The betting is on “no change”.

This will disappoint/anger owners of “non essential” shops who are desperate to reopen as soon as possible. There may be extra compo for them to soften the pain.

Is lockdown working? There are signs that the activity of the virus is slowing. The R or Reproduction rate – how many people 1 Covid carrier infects – has fallen below 1 (to 0.93) for the first time since early July. The rate of positive tests is also falling – now 19.5%.

Read 15 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

1 Nov

Here is an excellent riposte to some of the wilful or ignorant nonsense from people who should no better accusing Macron of being anti muslim or playing the anti muslim card. Op-ed by a dozen or French muslim leaders praising Macron's approach.
lemonde.fr/idees/article/…

Can't translate the whole thing but it points out that Macron's speech early last month on combating extremist islamist separatism was in no way an attack on Islam.

Here are two extracts translated into English (courtesy of Google Translate.) Will post the whole thing in English if someone can tell me how to link to large chunks of text on Twitter...

Read 15 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

31 Oct

Greek orthodox priest shot twice and seriously injured by a gunman as he was closing his church in Lyons at 4pm this afternoon . Another djihadist attack. Not yet clear.

lefigaro.fr/actualite-fran…

Meant to put a "?" after "another djihadist attack". According to Le Progres, the local paper in Lyon, the priest is in his 40's and was attacked with a sawn-off shotgun.

Priest, who is fighting for his life, named as , Nicolas K., 52. Gunman is described as very tall - 1m 90 or around 6 feet three inches - and "of Mediterranean appearance." Djihadist attack one possibility but also, police say, it's possible that this is NOT an Islamist attack.

Read 4 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

17 Oct

Here is a new, darker Covid update for France. Individual days can be misleading so I crunch stats every 6/7 days. The trend is worrying. Cases are up sharply, including a new 24hr peak over 30,000 on Thurs. More importantly, deaths and acute cases have begun to accelerate. 1/9

The average number of Covid deaths reported daily in the last 7 days was 94.5 – compared to 62.7 the previous week, and 81.7 and 74.7 in the weeks before that. Not an explosion but a significant upward lurch. 2/9

The number of new cases in 24hrs has averaged over 20,000 in the last 7 days – 20,399 to be precise, compared to 16,035 the previous week. Earlier 7-day averages going backwards were 12,242 - 12,838 - 10,520 - 8,630. In early Aug it was 500…a 40-fold in just over 2 months.
3/9

Read 9 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

14 Oct

Emmanuel Macron is about to start a TV interview in which he will announce new anti Covid measures in France. A curfew in big cities including Paris? Maybe but he will probably not use that word.

"We haven't lost control but we are in a worrying situation," Macron says. "32% of intensive care beds are occupied by Covid patients..." Unlike the first wave, 2nd wave is spread all over the country. There are no unaffected areas where surplus patients can be sent.

Objective is therefore to prevent health service from being overwhelmed. "Curfews are therefore a useful tool..." people will be forbidden to leave home. from 10pm to 6am in greater Paris and string of other métro areas.

Read 17 tweets

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