These never get old. “crucial to remember that humanity still has great sway over how much we disrupt the climate in the coming decades.” —the problem here isn’t researchers’ <climate models>, which are very sophisticated, but their simplistic ideas of <society>, & how it changes
No one seems to care: in the sense of, the metrics of this paper don’t seem to be skyrocket quite yet. Internet, do your thing. This is relevant enough, our future & SDGs after all 🙏🥳cambridge.org/core/journals/… /@SaraSchurmann@gri_mm :)
* when you correct grammar but ...
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Thread with useful references & second the climate justice point. Only, recommend being careful with those cost estimates that have been going around and seem too-good-to believe. Any bet that they are.
I tire to repeat this but we can turn circles around temperature estimates, pointlessly creating complexity, or focus on concentrations data, to gain some clarity. 413 ppm now. Hansen 2007. Start there —🙏 @CarlSchleussner
How is everyone seemingly so afraid of pointing out the obvious problems. Folks if we just wanna have fun, then I can think of way better things to do than climate discourse.
Someone reminded me I did some editing years ago. Rewatching, this seems as naive as timely: [cw cognitive overload but also tango music, so why not share—👇🏿] vimeo.com/297453366
/@alxrdk 🙏🏿 and I agree, maybe it's about time to verbalize & unravel this, will try :]
Superexponential growth in atmospheric concentrations: a glimpse of our future. Idea: Let's maybe drop the magical thinking, & start to do analysis as if policy mattered. 👇🏿
Superexponential: when the annual mean growth rate of concentrations increases decade after decade unless some major global economic crisis interrupts it temporarily.
Note the shift around 2000—after which economic crises don't slow growth much anymore. esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trend…
"analysis as if policy mattered." —This in itself is magical thinking, bc there seems to be no empirical evidence to suggest that policy matters. But maybe we can make it so; worth a try.
—climate tweeps: I may be biased but worth translating all @MuellerTadzio says. We badly need more cut-the-BS political science analysis. Here: the policy field climate policy is a data morgana, a Scheinriese: a giant who, as you approach her, shrinks to the size of a needle. ❤️
Ok *Fata Morgana* but autocorrect made this point perfect. We obscure more than we clarify with the data orgasm we call climate research, where we should really occasionally stop to ask: what does any of this even mean? In complex systems? The human condition etc. /@MuellerTadzio
We challenge scholars to find *any* measurable impact of policy on emissions & concentrations trajectories. Folks, we have been hiding from a few rather fundamental questions, and only people like Schellnhuber @djspratt & Co. have been calling it like it is at the highest level.