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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
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23 Nov, 5 tweets, 1 min read
To atone for past sins, I'm reading Jay Forrester and am sorry to report that where I google, past people *thought*
That's sobering 😂 (here: World dynamics 1971) 🥰
Useful 2016 review of the LTG discourse: @appg_L2G limits2growth.org.uk 🙏
"Our greatest challenge now is how to handle the transition from growth into equilibrium. The industrial societies have behind them long traditions that have encouraged & rewarded growth.
The folklore & the success stories praise growth and expansion. But that is not the path of the future. Many of the present stresses in our society are from the pressures that always accompany the conversion from growth into equilibrium." —Forrester, 1971

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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
24 Nov
Thread with useful references & second the climate justice point. Only, recommend being careful with those cost estimates that have been going around and seem too-good-to believe. Any bet that they are.
I tire to repeat this but we can turn circles around temperature estimates, pointlessly creating complexity, or focus on concentrations data, to gain some clarity. 413 ppm now. Hansen 2007. Start there —🙏 @CarlSchleussner
How is everyone seemingly so afraid of pointing out the obvious problems. Folks if we just wanna have fun, then I can think of way better things to do than climate discourse.
Read 5 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
21 Nov
These never get old. “crucial to remember that humanity still has great sway over how much we disrupt the climate in the coming decades.” —the problem here isn’t researchers’ <climate models>, which are very sophisticated, but their simplistic ideas of <society>, & how it changes
Ironically, Randers Rockström et al. discusses precisely this question well but no one seems to care. Worth sharing... 🙏 @TerliWetter
No one seems to care: in the sense of, the metrics of this paper don’t seem to be skyrocket quite yet. Internet, do your thing. This is relevant enough, our future & SDGs after all 🙏🥳cambridge.org/core/journals/… /@SaraSchurmann @gri_mm :)
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
4 Oct
One free copy of <We're Doomed, Now What?> still available if anyone wants it 😇 1/2
Finally reading the fascinating 3°C Plus pamphlet @hnsgr produced: & love it librarystack.org/three-degrees-…

2 reading recommendations for #ExtinctionRebellion #rebellionwave this week. @XRBerlin @ExtinctionR_DE /via @jembendell 🙏 2/2
Key to any kind of positive way forward: empathy
Read 5 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
2 Oct
Someone reminded me I did some editing years ago. Rewatching, this seems as naive as timely: [cw cognitive overload but also tango music, so why not share—👇🏿] vimeo.com/297453366
/@alxrdk 🙏🏿 and I agree, maybe it's about time to verbalize & unravel this, will try :]
Context:
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
29 Sep
Superexponential growth in atmospheric concentrations: a glimpse of our future. Idea: Let's maybe drop the magical thinking, & start to do analysis as if policy mattered. 👇🏿 Image
Superexponential: when the annual mean growth rate of concentrations increases decade after decade unless some major global economic crisis interrupts it temporarily.

Note the shift around 2000—after which economic crises don't slow growth much anymore. esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trend… ImageImage
"analysis as if policy mattered." —This in itself is magical thinking, bc there seems to be no empirical evidence to suggest that policy matters. But maybe we can make it so; worth a try.

The alternative is roughly this trajectory which doesn't look good. pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.107… Image
Read 6 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
28 Sep
—climate tweeps: I may be biased but worth translating all @MuellerTadzio says. We badly need more cut-the-BS political science analysis. Here: the policy field climate policy is a data morgana, a Scheinriese: a giant who, as you approach her, shrinks to the size of a needle. ❤️
Ok *Fata Morgana* but autocorrect made this point perfect. We obscure more than we clarify with the data orgasm we call climate research, where we should really occasionally stop to ask: what does any of this even mean? In complex systems? The human condition etc. /@MuellerTadzio Image
We challenge scholars to find *any* measurable impact of policy on emissions & concentrations trajectories. Folks, we have been hiding from a few rather fundamental questions, and only people like Schellnhuber @djspratt & Co. have been calling it like it is at the highest level.
Read 4 tweets

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