One of the ways to remove the risk from the speculative activity of real estate & betting on CAP rate compression,
is to focus only on great deals truly priced below market or replacement cost, usually found from distressed sellers & to reduce/remove leverage from the equation.
Also worth mentioning is to focus on the value add as a key driver of appreciation, instead of hoping for market appreciation.
The forced appreciation component that our family has focused on is construction, which is an edge to increase profits without speculation.
Benjamin Graham said:
"A speculator gambles that a stock will go up in price because somebody else will pay even more for it."
The same is true in real estate or other assets.
Instead of hoping for a higher exit price, buy at a lower entry price and exit at the market.
That is why our focus has always been: Only. Great. Deals.
Yes, they aren't easily found. Others are searching for it, too. Competition is part of the game. Sometimes you might wait for a long time before one comes your way. That is the discipline of the patient investor.
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Great nuggets of wisdom you hear on private telephone conversations:
"The elite developers I work with, and that we finance through senior & mezz debt — the IRR on their own money should be close to or around 100%. And some of these guys are achieving that for years."
Some people mention that 20% mezzanine debt finance is ridiculously high, but what they don't understand about construction finance is the way elite developers have their capital working in high-risk, early phases of the project.
Once the project gets development approvals...
...and it becomes "shovel ready" (construction term used to indicate everything is ready to go apart from finance), it is the blend of senior and mezzanine debt that comes in financing the project.
Elite developers will even go a step further and do an "equity withdrawal"...
1/ In 1960, both Jamacia and Singapore separated from the great British Empire.
Both island nations, both started with similar GDP, using common law & English as a primary language of business.
2/ At the time, Singapore was a mosquito-ridden swamp, complete under-developed, and where the heroin trade was the most dynamic (black) part of the economy.
3/ However, due to incredible foresight and vision are by one of the greatest leaders to ever live in the 20th century — Lee Kuan Yew — Singapore became one of the greatest, if not the greatest country in the world today.
Aggregated 15 developed markets, using a traditional portfolio of stocks & bonds, show the highest valuations in two and half centuries.
On the real estate side, most developed economies residential real estate CAP rates have hit rock bottom — indicating very little, if any value, for the long term investors.