@gsgs2 @franciscodeasis @Rossana38510044 @jhouse678 @nature @edwardcholmes @arambaut @angie_rasmussen @K_G_Andersen Questions/hypotheses about SARS-CoV-2 origin mustn't distract us from established facts. Sequential recap:

1/ A bat-derived coronavirus (CoV) starts an outbreak near a bat CoV research center, the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV)
2/ WIV's virus database is noticed to be offline
@gsgs2 @franciscodeasis @Rossana38510044 @jhouse678 @nature @edwardcholmes @arambaut @angie_rasmussen @K_G_Andersen 3/ In a February 2020 paper, WIV admits having possession (since 2013) of one close relative of the outbreak virus, but fails to cite its own 2016 paper where it had been published as RaBtCoV/4991
@gsgs2 @franciscodeasis @Rossana38510044 @jhouse678 @nature @edwardcholmes @arambaut @angie_rasmussen @K_G_Andersen 4/ They rename this close relative RaTG13; omit the original name & accession; publish a full genome, but only partial raw data; & imply they had recently sequenced it
5/ An anti-lab origin campaign starts immediately, orchestrated by WIV research associates EcoHealth Alliance
@gsgs2 @franciscodeasis @Rossana38510044 @jhouse678 @nature @edwardcholmes @arambaut @angie_rasmussen @K_G_Andersen 6/ A Masters thesis shows that RaTG13 was collected in a mine where in 2012 a group of miners had caught a deadly SARS-like pneumonia
7/ That thesis (since scrubbed from CNKI) details the clinical presentation of miners cases: they're indistinguishable from what we now call Covid
@gsgs2 @franciscodeasis @Rossana38510044 @jhouse678 @nature @edwardcholmes @arambaut @angie_rasmussen @K_G_Andersen 8/ WIV publishes further raw data (amplicons) with respect to RaTG13; file names suggest sequencing was done long before the Wuhan outbreak, in 2017-2018

9/ WIV admits RaTG13 sequencing was actually done in 2018
@gsgs2 @franciscodeasis @Rossana38510044 @jhouse678 @nature @edwardcholmes @arambaut @angie_rasmussen @K_G_Andersen 10/ WIV publishes an addendum to its February 2020 paper: yes, RaTG13 comes from the mine linked to the 2012 Covid-like outbreak

11/ The addendum additionally confirms that WIV scientists collected 8 other related SARS-like CoVs from bats in the same mine
@gsgs2 @franciscodeasis @Rossana38510044 @jhouse678 @nature @edwardcholmes @arambaut @angie_rasmussen @K_G_Andersen 12/ That is, WIV scientists worked on an unpublished group of bat SARS-related CoVs between 2013 and the start of the Wuhan outbreak

13/ The addendum also says that in 2012 WIV scientists received & tested blood samples from the sick miners, that were allegedly negative for CoVs
@gsgs2 @franciscodeasis @Rossana38510044 @jhouse678 @nature @edwardcholmes @arambaut @angie_rasmussen @K_G_Andersen 14/ The addendum reports that the 2012 miners blood samples were retested for SARS-CoV-2 with negative results

15/ These *facts* call into serious question one of the main arguments against a lab scenario: that no SARS-2-like viruses existed at the WIV before the Wuhan outbreak
@gsgs2 @franciscodeasis @Rossana38510044 @jhouse678 @nature @edwardcholmes @arambaut @angie_rasmussen @K_G_Andersen 16/End

Is it possible that all these facts & events, while true & incontrovertible, are only unrelated coincidences?

Logic and probabilities are inexorable, and there is no escaping the facts: the probability of a lab scenario is closer and closer to 1.

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More from @AntGDuarte

12 Nov
1/ Re-upping this thread on the origins of #COVID-19. It makes a compelling case for a possible lab escape.

Magnitudes more plausible that SARS-CoV-2 emerged from a lab in Wuhan (known to be lacking in safety protocols) than from a 100% natural zoonosis.
3/ At what point will we hear a proper call for a true investigation into the suspicious inaccuracies and inconsistencies?

@c_drosten @trvrb @edyong209 @MackayIM @kakape @AdamJKucharski @mlipsitch @nataliexdean

Some have, but more voices are needed!

Read 9 tweets
20 Aug
1. While awaiting @shingheizhan reassembling of RaTG13, here's a thread with some odd features reported by authors who made use of its GenBank sequence. Most of them used the sequence for other research goals, rather than assessing it, so its anomalies are mentioned incidentally.
2. This Feb 2020 preprint found that synonymous mutations "are dramatically elevated between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13" and "enriched in T:C transition."

Since some RNA mutagens "could induce the same mutation pattern", authors suggest further investigation.
3. @Nerdhaspower's was the first paper I read raising doubts about RaTG13 sequence.
Issue: two bat CoVs show nonsyn mutations evenly distributed along their S sequences. For RaTG13 vs SARS-CoV-2 they appear heavily concentrated around codons 300-500. Why?

Read 11 tweets

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