One of the harder things in investing for me is dealing with a contrarian investment thesis at the outset that becomes significantly less so over time
A minority point of view that transitions to more of a consensus view typically means the market is willing to pay more for the same opportunity that was originally spotted
The payoff for being correct changes and with a consistent end state, the risk vs reward attractiveness has gotten worse mathematically. This can make it tempting reduce such an investment
The hard part is that great returns may yet await despite consensus getting closer to the original contrarian thesis. This has been a much debated topic in my head for at least a decade. #InvestingIsHard

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More from @mario_cibelli

24 Nov
I don't have a view on $SFIX's coming quarterly results but I've been thinking more about dynamics that may, over time, help drive improved financial results for the company
The apparel recommendation feed for direct buy seems perfectly suited for sponsored listings at one point. This kind of optimization may be a ways off for Stitch but promoted brands/pieces would flow very naturally from the current version of the feed
There's no reason to believe that Stitch couldn't make a nice margin from brands seeking promotion on its platform
Read 9 tweets
10 Oct
I did some thinking this week and wanted to put into words a topic I've thought about again recently pertaining to many of the growth/challenger companies I’ve visited over the years.
When a new model is being pursued to serve an existing market, the problems that need to solved and the bottlenecks that manifest may be completely different than what incumbents experience.
A challenger company with a slightly different twist to its service/offering may, over time, magnify these differences so that in effect it is pursuing a completely different business than incumbents.
Read 8 tweets
30 Sep
Tweet thread IV is about WWE, a company I've been following since the early 2000s. Over that time period there have been a handful of occasions where the share price veered too far from intrinsic value. Now may be one of those times.

🤼‍♂️ 🎤💪🏼®️🅰️W (1/x)
I apologize in advance for the length of this thread but there’s a lot to parse out & distill. All that follows is opinion, not investment advice.
I'm guessing everyone knows this business already. If not, watch Raw or Smackdown and you'll get it --- sports entertainment. It's a soap opera for men --- yes women watch the shows too.
Read 76 tweets
23 Sep
I think this is 5 trades for 1-800 Contacts since leaving the public markets. Earnings have to be up materially since going private.
It’s going to take some time for me to add to my story of this rule breaker but mixed into all this is a fascinating case study of public vs private professional ownership.
1-800 captured much more value for its owners as a private entity than a public one and at some level that is unfortunate
Read 4 tweets
18 Sep
Tweet storm III is about company HQ'd in Salt Lake City and a CEO that accomplished something nearly impossible. The outcome changed the way contact lenses were sold in America.

👁👁👓📞🩺🏔 (1/x)
It was a fascinating journey and I'll tell you up front that there are some interesting parallels between this company and modern day rule breakers such as Uber.
It’s a long story so I’m going to break it up into two or three parts over the coming months. I’ll do my best to tell it fairly & accurately.
Read 47 tweets
30 Aug
A recent @NonGaap tweet about changing one’s mind reminded me of something Reed Hastings told me a decade+ ago

(1/x)
I thought about Netflix obsessively back then and on one of our visits I asked him a question about the creation of original content
I observed that Netflix had superior data from consumers and that it stood to reason that the company might be able to accurately deduce the type of content that would be popular with subscribers
Read 11 tweets

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