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Gro-Tsen Profile picture
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23 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
OK, maybe this is a stupid question… Why are there a gazillion inspirational motorcycle videos on YouTube, set to the music of ‘In The End’ by Linkin Park, and having the title “This is why we ride” (which confusingly is the name of a different song by a different band)?
Maybe this one started it (it has over 19M views, which I understand is a large number) and the others are copycats? I have no idea.
I mean, there's nothing in the lyrics of ‘In The End’ which suggests any particular connection with riding motorcycles or with the phrase “This is why we ride”. So why so many videos with this exact title and set to this exact piece of music?
Among the many mysteries of the Internet, this is a very small one, but still, it bugs me. I watched one such video, so of course YouTube started suggesting many others, and I was so confused because I thought “wait, didn't I just watch this the other day?”.

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More from @gro_tsen

Gro-Tsen Profile picture
24 Nov
Je trouve détestable la présentation du fil ci-dessous (à répéter «bullshit» et «mensonges» et finir par une photo de chat(‽)), mais le point central est juste et peut-être mal compris: l'espérance de vie a priori des personnes décédées covid est autour de 11 ans. 🧵 •1/22
Je fais régulièrement un calcul de l'âge moyen de décès et de l'espérance de vie moyenne des personnes décédées du covid en France depuis le début de l'épidémie, et actuellement je trouve: âge moyen 80.8 ans, espérance de vie moyenne 11.1 ans. •2/22
(Petits caractères: calcul sur la base de la répartition par âge et par sexe des décès hospitaliers publiées sur Géodes et de tableaux d'espérance de vie par âge et par sexe. J'interpole par des fonctions continues affines par morceaux. Détails ⤵️ •3/22
Read 22 tweets
Gro-Tsen Profile picture
24 Nov
This is maybe worth underlining: epidemiologists care about the logarithmic derivative of the number of cases (or deaths, whatever), because it measures epidemic growth, whereas ordinary people care about the ordinary derivative, because it measures the risk to them. •1/8
(The logarithmic derivative isn't quite the same thing as the effective reproduction number — there's also the question of the serial interval — but the two are quite connected, see thread below.) •2/8
The logarithmic derivative z′/z makes sense to look at because, during an exponential growth phase z ∝ exp(k·t), it's constant (k; while the ordinary derivative z' too grows exponentially): it measures relative growth per unit time, and tells us how the epidemic develops. •3/8
Read 8 tweets
Gro-Tsen Profile picture
21 Nov
The case of a population whose susceptibility follows an exponential distribution is particularly interesting to compare with the classical SIR case (which assumes a fixed, i.e. Dirac δ distributed) susceptibility: ⤵️
(The exponential distribution is the particular case where the shape parameter k is 1 of the Γ distribution mentioned in the above-quoted tweet. The Γ distribution on susceptibility has the nice and natural property that it remains of like kind as the population gets infected.)
‣ In the classical case (fixed susceptibility) SIR model, the herd immunity threshold is 1 − 1/R (where R is the basic reproduction number) and the (unmitigated) final attack rate is 1 + W(−R·exp(−R))/R (where W is Lambert's transcendental function).
Read 4 tweets
Gro-Tsen Profile picture
15 Nov
Un peu plus de trois semaines plus tard, que penser des estimations que j'avais données dans ce fil? J'avais suggéré une seconde vague à entre 10k et 65k morts, avec une charge hospitalière comparable à la première, mais plus étalée dans le temps si pas de confinement. •1/6
Sur ce tweet-ci il semble je n'aie pas eu trop tort sur l'ampleur du pic. •2/6
Bien sûr, il y A eu un reconfinement, mais probablement trop tard pour expliquer directement ce pic (pic déjà amorcé dans plusieurs métropoles avant son entrée en vigueur): le confinement aura plutôt pour effet d'accélérer la baisse derrière. •3/6
Read 6 tweets
Gro-Tsen Profile picture
15 Nov
There have been many calls, in this pandemic, to “listen to the science” or “listen to the experts”, which is certainly the right thing to do, but we shouldn't forget that the choice of WHICH (category of) experts to listen to matters immensely. •1/12
The seemingly obvious choice in a pandemic is to turn to physicians and public health specialists, specifically, to epidemiologists. And of course we should, but we must remember in doing so that they will have their inherent biases. •2/12
Epidemiologists are specially qualified to make assessments of the medical effects of epidemics. If we care about other things, like psychological, social or economical effects, they are no longer the obvious choice, for that we should turn to specialists in other fields. •3/12
Read 12 tweets
Gro-Tsen Profile picture
14 Nov
Bon, allez, un nouveau fil, sur le chiffre de 400 000 morts supplémentaires «si l'on ne fait rien» annoncés par Macron. Plutôt que de dire que c'est mensonger, je vais m'interroger sur les hypothèses qui sous-tendent ce chiffre. ⤵️ •1/37
La première question cruciale est «que signifie “si l'on ne fait rien”»? Faut-il comprendre:
ⓐ on abandonne toutes les mesures qu'on a déjà prises et on revient à la vie avant-covid?
ⓑ on ne fait rien DE PLUS que ce qu'on a déjà fait?
ⓒ juste pas de confinement général?
•2/37
J'ose espérer que tout le monde voit bien la différence entre ⓐ, ⓑ et ⓒ, et est d'accord que le nombre de morts covid dans le cas ⓐ sera plus important que dans le cas ⓑ, lui-même plus important que dans le cas ⓒ. Il faut donc savoir à quoi ce 400 000 se rapporte. •3/37
Read 37 tweets

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