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Tren Griffin Profile picture
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24 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/ What business is this?
2/ Who stole the y-axis?
Is sales and marketing really that low? Is there some CAC hiding in COGS? sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
4/ A freemium business model results in higher COGs, which is hidden CAC. If the cost of the free part of freemium isn't CAC, what exactly is it?

How effective "free" is financially depends on how much "mium" is generated.

25iq.com/2017/08/11/a-d…

25iq.com/2017/04/22/the…

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More from @trengriffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture
22 Nov
1/ Warren Buffett: "The pharmaceutical industry’s, obviously, been a terrific industry to invest in. I have trouble distinguishing among companies in terms of seeing which ones ten years from now might be the best ones to be in." 1997 BRK AGM buffett.cnbc.com/video/1997/05/…
2/ Buffett: "If we could buy a group of leading pharmaceutical companies at a below-market multiple, I think we’d do it in a second. We had the opportunity to do that in that 1993 period, as you mentioned. And we didn’t do it. So, we did blow it." 1999 AGM buffett.cnbc.com/video/1999/05/…
3/ Buffett: "I do think it’s very hard to pick out the winner. You know, so if I did buy them, I would buy them — I would buy a group of the leading companies. But I wouldn’t be buying them at these [1999] prices." BRK AGM
Read 9 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
19 Nov
How does this impact HBO Max's unit economics? How much are customer acquisition cost (CAC) and cost of goods sold (COGS) impacted? The former is about acquiring new customers.

"Wonder Woman 1984 won’t cost anything beyond the monthly subscription fee." theverge.com/2020/11/18/215…
Mufasa: "Simba, what is CAC for HBO Max without this decision to offer Wonder Woman to subscribers at no extra charge? What's CAC for Disney Plus, and Netflix? What is monthly churn?"

Simba: "Dad do you ever stop thinking about unit economics?"

Mufasa: "This is what kings do."
Simba: "HBO Max has 6M subscribers. Disney Plus, which launched a year ago, has 73M. AppleTV Plus has a reported 34M."

Mufasa: "Content can be effective CAC. Giving up some WW theatrical revenues is sleeves off their vest. No extra charge for WW, isn't." fastcompany.com/90576026/can-w…
Read 13 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
18 Nov
1/ “Hey, Tren, hey, how about a little something, you know, more specific about which stocks were bought by Todd and Ted in the Berkshire 13F, you know.”

I replied “Oh, uh, there won’t be any list, but I will give you the questions to ask, which is nice." sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
2/ For example: How big is the purchase or sale? If a sale, what's the holding period? Is it in Buffet/Munger's circle of competence? Margin of safety given the purchase price? Is the business understandable? Does it have a sustainable moat? Is it a franchise Buffett/Munger love?
3/ Determining what is Todd and Ted is a process of elimination. Munger has said Todd and Ted are free to make their own decisions since Buffett would have hated it at their age. Todd and Ted only have so much capital. That's a clue.

Final exam: who made the pharma investments?
Read 8 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
15 Nov
1/ Charlie Munger: “We have the same problem as everyone else: It’s very hard to predict the future."

Seth Klarman: "An unresolvable contradiction exists: to perform present value analysis, you must predict the future, yet the future is not reliably predictable."
2/ Charlie Munger: “Stocks partly sell like bonds, based on expectations of future cash streams, and partly like Rembrandts, based on the fact that they’ve gone up in the past and are fashionable."
3/ "If stocks trade more like Rembrandts in the future, then stocks will rise, but they will have no anchors. In this case, it’s hard to predict how far, how high and how long it will last.”

Charlie Munger on the problems with a Keynesian Beauty Contest approach.
Read 10 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
13 Nov
What business is this?
You wanted to see my favorite chart in a S-1?
Have you adjusted to all this adjusting yet?

Is "adjusted EBITDA" redundant since it's adjusting what was already an adjustment?

Should the Department of Redundancy Department be contacted?
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
13 Nov
1/ "Starlink’s initial pricing — $100 per month and $499 to purchase the Starlink user terminal — is not a beta-only introductory price but reflects what pricing will be in the full commercial service, Starlink Vice President Jonathan Hofeller said."
"Right now there’s a huge amount of demand [for Starlink service] which is excellent. It currently exceeds current supply,” Hofeller said SpaceX hopes to lower the cost of the terminal over time." satellitetoday.com/business/2020/…
3/ A Beta user said: "the system represents a massive upgrade over his DSL provider. If you were to just use Starlink to watch YouTube or Netflix where they download a buffer, it'll feel like great city cable internet. Upload ranges between 10 to 38Mbps.” news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
Read 4 tweets

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