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David Henig Profile picture
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24 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Very difficult to prevent this problem without a high degree of trust between UK and EU which clearly does not currently exist. These are the issues of day-to-day trade that are already seeing GB-Ireland trade diminishing, and EU-Ireland trade growing.
And the question of trade rules for food products between GB and EU is inevitably going to be bound up with a UK-US trade deal, and the prospect of the UK changing domestic food rules to allow US produce to enter the country.
Tricky for the Biden trade team, a UK-US trade deal on the usual US model causes problems for GB-Ireland trade and sees the UK joining team-US with regard to food regulation deepening US-EU trade differences. But long term aim of US trade to support US farmers. Resolve that...
Back on this story - evidence really that the scale of trading changes to come on January 1 has still not sunk in. Basically all UK-EU trade moves from permissive (assume it is allowed) to permission (check if allowed) based. Deal or no-deal. rte.ie/news/2020/1123…

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
25 Nov
Look at the date of this story about no GB-EU sausage trade after Jan 1. Then wonder what happened next. If the expectation was the EU would change long-standing food import regulations, on what basis? (metro.co.uk/2020/02/18/bri…) Image
Simply - January 1 is the biggest one day change in a country's trading relations in history.

On average, every day, the UK trades £2 billion of goods and services with the EU and closely connected countries.

The rules covering virtually all of that trade will change.
I reckon the UK-EU trade flow is the second largest globally. Whatever happens with deal or no deal, the change from permissive to rules based trade is going to have a huge effect (and if it didn't all trade liberalisation is worthless).
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
23 Nov
Hard to judge rumours like this which seem ostensibly unlikely. Acknowledgment that there won't be a deal? Desperation of both sides for something? Or just pure wishful thinking?

Probably best focus on the substance. Do EU and UK red lines allow for a deal or not?
Useful also to remember if we're hearing rumours and briefings about a UK-EU deal then we aren't in that much of a negotiating tunnel.
I suspect a lot of people are thinking right now (me included) - is there a game changer for UK-EU talks? Something to ease the political decision-making problems. Very difficult, and I haven't seen anything. Some thinking aloud make become rumour though...
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
23 Nov
There are mixed signals from the UK side about the possibility of a deal this week. But for it to happen someone is going to have to defend the compromises required against pressures like this. So far, no Minister will do that.
Just to recall, Boris Johnson's main intervention to get a deal would have to be a call with himself to agree that. Once done, the deal with the EU is more or less there, today, tomorrow or whenever. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…
To be clear there are no significant technical obstacles to a UK-EU deal. With or without review clauses the EU will have less access to fish, though enough for UK criticism. Similarly the UK will have to sign up to level playing field terms, though less than some in EU want.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
22 Nov
Brexit. More evidence than in the current Conservative Party to argue for an EU deal is not something anyone concerned about their career will do.
I suspect not many of my followers are readers of the Daily Express but this should be noted. There is precisely zero chance that an EU deal can satisfy this criterion. So, the PM to take on the Centre for Brexit Policy? Likelihood? express.co.uk/news/uk/136294…
Nobody is presumably briefing those 'red wall' MPs that no-deal Brexit means the almost certain further decline of UK manufacturing including most notably the car industry. That no developed country has no significant trade deal with a neighbour.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Nov
Unless the reason for that optimism is an indication directly from the PM that he intends to make concessions to get a deal it is no more than wishful thinking. Important we understand the code of these things.
Sorry to be a bore but it isn't just the UK EU deal. To get the Japan deal the UK seems to have had to give up some access to agriculture quotas in return for future promises. It looks like a Canada deal will also need a UK concession. All normal.
Two things have changed in UK EU talks since June. General agreement on most issues has turned to text, and the Internal Market Bill has been added to the list of fundamental problems, along with fish, level playing field, governance. 95% was always uncontroversial.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Nov
I suspect it is four. Level Playing Field, governance / disputes, fish, and Northern Ireland Internal Market Bill, though latter is being handled in different discussions. Basically not much changed in six months.
Never enjoyed the doublespeak of trade negotiations. Negotiators can agree smallprint. That isn't momentum. Politicians making difficult decisions is key. "if there is political will" says they still aren't, yet.
So just to emphasise. "Momentum" in trade negotiations is quite like "ambition". Nice sounding words that don't mean what they seem. Momentum means talks have not broken down, like ambition means the usual text.

It seems EU-UK talks have made no noticeable progress this week.
Read 11 tweets

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