Look at the date of this story about no GB-EU sausage trade after Jan 1. Then wonder what happened next. If the expectation was the EU would change long-standing food import regulations, on what basis? (metro.co.uk/2020/02/18/bri…)
Simply - January 1 is the biggest one day change in a country's trading relations in history.
On average, every day, the UK trades £2 billion of goods and services with the EU and closely connected countries.
The rules covering virtually all of that trade will change.
I reckon the UK-EU trade flow is the second largest globally. Whatever happens with deal or no deal, the change from permissive to rules based trade is going to have a huge effect (and if it didn't all trade liberalisation is worthless).
The percentage of people in the UK, including prominent politicians, who haven't realised that increasing barriers for 50% of UK trade would have an impact, suggests we didn't need to be told a lot of people don't understand economics ft.com/content/938212…
Is it not in fact the policy of this UK government to ignore economics as it relates to the proximity of the UK to the EU?
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The latest development in an 'anti-any-EU-deal' campaign that has been growing among Brexit circles in recent weeks. Sovereignty so defined as to require the Northern Ireland Protocol to be rescinded in a deal, therefore a test which won't be met.
A big problem for the PM is no trade deal wouldn't be the end of the Brexit ultra revolt, as the next stage will be to seek a UK renunciation of the Withdrawal Agreement, or at the very least non implementation of the Northern Irelant protocol.
So in that decision which the PM has to take imminently he has to decide whether to side with the Brexit ultras on full collision course with EU and US, side in part for no-deal but quietly implement the NI protocol, or split and do the deal.
It is notable how little trade has been mentioned around the spending review. A government that seems to know little of how global trade works, in part due to four years of listening to those who invented their own worlds to claim no economic cost to their preferred hard Brexit.
Very difficult to prevent this problem without a high degree of trust between UK and EU which clearly does not currently exist. These are the issues of day-to-day trade that are already seeing GB-Ireland trade diminishing, and EU-Ireland trade growing.
And the question of trade rules for food products between GB and EU is inevitably going to be bound up with a UK-US trade deal, and the prospect of the UK changing domestic food rules to allow US produce to enter the country.
Tricky for the Biden trade team, a UK-US trade deal on the usual US model causes problems for GB-Ireland trade and sees the UK joining team-US with regard to food regulation deepening US-EU trade differences. But long term aim of US trade to support US farmers. Resolve that...
Hard to judge rumours like this which seem ostensibly unlikely. Acknowledgment that there won't be a deal? Desperation of both sides for something? Or just pure wishful thinking?
Probably best focus on the substance. Do EU and UK red lines allow for a deal or not?
Useful also to remember if we're hearing rumours and briefings about a UK-EU deal then we aren't in that much of a negotiating tunnel.
I suspect a lot of people are thinking right now (me included) - is there a game changer for UK-EU talks? Something to ease the political decision-making problems. Very difficult, and I haven't seen anything. Some thinking aloud make become rumour though...
There are mixed signals from the UK side about the possibility of a deal this week. But for it to happen someone is going to have to defend the compromises required against pressures like this. So far, no Minister will do that.
Just to recall, Boris Johnson's main intervention to get a deal would have to be a call with himself to agree that. Once done, the deal with the EU is more or less there, today, tomorrow or whenever. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…
To be clear there are no significant technical obstacles to a UK-EU deal. With or without review clauses the EU will have less access to fish, though enough for UK criticism. Similarly the UK will have to sign up to level playing field terms, though less than some in EU want.
I suspect not many of my followers are readers of the Daily Express but this should be noted. There is precisely zero chance that an EU deal can satisfy this criterion. So, the PM to take on the Centre for Brexit Policy? Likelihood? express.co.uk/news/uk/136294…
Nobody is presumably briefing those 'red wall' MPs that no-deal Brexit means the almost certain further decline of UK manufacturing including most notably the car industry. That no developed country has no significant trade deal with a neighbour.