Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 through November 7th (Yellow line). Red circles are mortality for 2017-18 flu and 2020 Covid.

Infection spikes lead mortality by 2-3 weeks. This is going to get very ugly for the next months...

cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
Note first wave locales like New York (April/May) and Florida (August/September) had their big spikes earlier this year (through November 7th)
The current spike in the Midwest has yet to show the bigger up on these charts but local reporting suggests they are very large.

Iowa and Minnesota are bad, Wisconsin even worse
(through November 7th)
North Dakota was spiking the week of November 7th, and has gotten worse since then; South Dakota is a few weeks behind their neighbor to the north.

South Dakota, which hosted Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Aug 6-15, may be SuperSpreader seed event for the entire midwest
West coast states Washington and California spiked early in the pandemic, as of Nov 7, have yet to see increases . . . but they are coming.
Bottom line: Covid infections are spreading dramatically + at the worst possible time - during the Thanksgiving travel season.

I go to Chicago for turkey day, but not this year. By this time next year life will be much closer to normal.

Stay home, be safe + enjoy your holiday.

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More from @ritholtz

19 Nov
If you live in New York, this app from NYS Dept of Health of a Covid infected person spends 10 mins or more within 6 feet of you

apps.apple.com/us/app/covid-a…
New Jersey has Covid Alert app

covid19.nj.gov/pages/app
In Connecticut its called The COVID Alert CT App

portal.ct.gov/coronavirus/co…
Read 6 tweets
18 Nov
Thanks in part to Bill Gates, vaccines are ALREADY being produced at scale, as they await approval. Even the most rabid Windows-hating Mac lifer must admit that @BillGates is a hero in this fight.

Good on him.

via @davepell

wired.com/story/larry-br…
Thats the good news. The bad news? Hospitals are being overrun

22% of American hospitals don’t have enough workers right now.

theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
The current administration placed all their chips on "Vaccine - and while we are making great progress there, the Covid spread has run amuck

texasmonthly.com/being-texan/co…
Read 7 tweets
20 Sep
"Survivorship bias tends to distort data in only one direction, by making the results seem better than they actually are. This is because fund closures are often a result of underperformance."

vanguard.co.uk/documents/adv/… Image
And another interesting analysis from ICMA-RC
icmarc.org/prebuilt/apps/… Image
Read 14 tweets
20 Sep
When the Republican Party Was Sane dlvr.it/RgzYPJ Image
By the one and only @BruceBartlett
Bruce Bartlett is a former Republican who served as a domestic policy adviser to Ronald Reagan and as a Treasury official under George H. W. Bush. A longtime observer and commenter on economic and political affairs in Washington, D.C.
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep
Contrarian alert: Color me skeptical that a major business publication is going to call a bubble on its cover in real time.

barrons.com/articles/the-m… Image
And yes, I spot the hedge in the way its phrased: "Its a bubble but it's not ready to pop" covers all bases.

Blow up? We told you it was a bubble!
Rally? We told you it was not ready to pop!

Not really sure what the value of this duality is to investors...
here is why: We ignore the simple reality that the future is inherently unknown, and unknowable.

Once when we start talking about Uncertainty, what we really mean is our confidence in our flawed models is fading. The optimism we usually shown cracks.

ritholtz.com/2012/07/theres…
Read 7 tweets
4 Sep
This week's #MiB featuring @morganhousel is now live!
Its pretty awesome!

open.spotify.com/episode/0WObdU…
A partner at Collaborative Fund and author of the new book "The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed and Happiness." former columnist at The Motley Fool and WSJ, he is 2-time winner of the Best in Business Award from SABEW

overcast.fm/+JWZQPjJ90
Here is the Bloomberg downloadable MP3 version
bloomberg.com/news/audio/202…
Read 4 tweets

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