Thread by @faisalislam

Chancellor announces initial £18bn directly for testing, PPE, vaccines next year #SR20

11.3% fall in the economy this year forecast for this year... (largest for three centuries) growing by 5.5% next year, 6.6% in 2022, then 2.3%, 1.7% and 1.8% in the following years...

By 2025 economy expected to be 3% smaller than expected in MArch #SR20

Government borrowing £394bn this year says forecast - that is 19% of GDP for this one year’s borrowing...

Not far off the official figure four the entire historic national debt in 1990 at 21%

Unemployment expected to peak at 7.5% or 2.6m people according to OBR... a terrible increase, but less than some forecasts earlier this year

Chancellor: Pay rises in rest of public sector (apart from NHS nurses and doctors) will be paused...(frozen) but those below £24k will get a pay rise of at least £250 - a “majority of public sector workers will see an increase.

Chancellor accepts Low Pay Commission National Living Wage recommendation of £8.91 an hour.... the LPC lowered its central projection for this rate from £9.21 since the pandemic recession began.

Chancellor says he had to make tough choices on aid - 0.7% aid target scrapped for 0.5% this year and will return “when the fiscal situation allows”...

A £4bn “levelling up fund” managed by HMT, DfT and MHCLG that must command support from “their local MP” — for infrastructure - its local and regional authorities that wanted these powers though...

Key line from OBR:

Historic rise in budget deficit, post war record...

But in 2021-22 the debt interest-revenue ratio falls...

To a post war record low of 1.7%

OBR on Brexit:

Benefit to public finances through higher tariffs “more than offset by indirect fiscal costs of attendant disruption and lower term productivity”

OBR project fall in GDP in Q4 of this year of 2.7% - so a dip but not a double dip recession as Q1 is expected to be up 1.9% -