Chancellor announces initial £18bn directly for testing, PPE, vaccines next year #SR20
11.3% fall in the economy this year forecast for this year... (largest for three centuries) growing by 5.5% next year, 6.6% in 2022, then 2.3%, 1.7% and 1.8% in the following years...

By 2025 economy expected to be 3% smaller than expected in MArch #SR20
Government borrowing £394bn this year says forecast - that is 19% of GDP for this one year’s borrowing...

Not far off the official figure four the entire historic national debt in 1990 at 21%
Unemployment expected to peak at 7.5% or 2.6m people according to OBR... a terrible increase, but less than some forecasts earlier this year
Chancellor: Pay rises in rest of public sector (apart from NHS nurses and doctors) will be paused...(frozen) but those below £24k will get a pay rise of at least £250 - a “majority of public sector workers will see an increase.
Chancellor accepts Low Pay Commission National Living Wage recommendation of £8.91 an hour.... the LPC lowered its central projection for this rate from £9.21 since the pandemic recession began.
Chancellor says he had to make tough choices on aid - 0.7% aid target scrapped for 0.5% this year and will return “when the fiscal situation allows”...
A £4bn “levelling up fund” managed by HMT, DfT and MHCLG that must command support from “their local MP” — for infrastructure - its local and regional authorities that wanted these powers though...
Key line from OBR:

Historic rise in budget deficit, post war record...

But in 2021-22 the debt interest-revenue ratio falls...

To a post war record low of 1.7%
OBR on Brexit:

Benefit to public finances through higher tariffs “more than offset by indirect fiscal costs of attendant disruption and lower term productivity”
OBR project fall in GDP in Q4 of this year of 2.7% - so a dip but not a double dip recession as Q1 is expected to be up 1.9% -

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Faisal Islam

Faisal Islam Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @faisalislam

26 Nov
Second half of Spending Review extra time - at the IFS.
@PJTheEconomist pointing out that “precisely zero” additional Covid spending (eg for vaccine/ test & trace) allocated beyond next year’s “whopping £55bn”...
IFS on council tax: “Chancellor has chosen to reduce support to local authorities and has given them the ability to raise council tax by 5% instead. If they do, and they’ll mostly probably need to, that will increase annual tax bills by an average of around £70 per household”.
IFS on partial public sector pay freeze:
- will hit graduate public sector workers in London & SE, least we’ll paid relative to private sector
- Two part time teachers on £20k will each get £250 pay rise but a full time teacher doing same job gets nothing
Read 5 tweets
26 Nov
On Spending Review analysis call for @resfoundation @TorstenBell pondering the Maradona theory of economics first floated by the former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King - basically related to being able to walk straight through defenders if they expect you to go round them... Image
Here’s Mervyn King’s seminal analysis of the Maradona theory of interest rates from 15 years ago... “the truly remarkable thing is that Maradona ran in a straight line”... Image
OBR’s new chief Richard Hughes contrasts the deficit spike after financial crisis - mainly tax related - with this year’s extraordinary fiscal support “almost like Beveridge overnight”...
Read 10 tweets
24 Nov
spoke to Mayor of G Manchester @andyburnham for #BBCNewsSix ahead of SR - he warned that infrastructure not enough, citizens need help with lower costs eg bus fares now, and that Covid had “levelled down” UK with North now facing “worse than 80s crisis” bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Burnham: “north of England has been hit hardest by COVID because of failure to invest.. we could be looking at another period like the 1980s in the north of England, coming out of the COVID crisis, the 2020s could even be worse than the 1980s”
He did welcome the Green Book changes that should direct more infrastructure spending North, though detail on that tomorrow. Said the “bias against the North” goes back decades and he saw it as Chief Sec when he asked for similar schemes at the time of London Crossrail funding..
Read 5 tweets
9 Nov
Let me tell you just two* stories which might have wider resonance about a special person who we were saying bye to today... Dadu, Mukul, Chow to some, to me... Dad.

A few years ago, I spoke at the 500th anniversary of my old school. trying to capture spirit of Manchester... ImageImage
I spoke of Dad, an Indian Muslim student, being given his first career push in 1960s by an open minded Jewish accountant. It turned out he Yitz was in the audience. They reconnected, had big joint clan dinner in Mcr.
He gave a eulogy today.

& I’m godfather to his granddaughter Image
Dad was very proud to be British, Indian, Muslim, Bengali and Mancunian, saw no contradictions... born into rural Bengal still under British control, first memory the RAF flying over his village on the way to Burma in WW2, his dad’s tannery supplying leather for army boots... Image
Read 6 tweets
31 Oct
NEW: Told that the this will be a return to furlough scheme for all at rate of 80% of wages, with flexible element to support part time working. So the nearest analogy is the furlough scheme as it was in August. Ie not tied to having to close down, like tier 3 JSS due tomorrow
Understand that the Jobs Support Scheme due tomorrow will now come in when extended furlough ends, currently planned for beginning of December, ie when national lockdown remains.

Obviously extended furlough will apply across the UK to all nations.
Obviously that is interesting re what Welsh first minister said earlier...

Am checking re self emp scheme, generosity of which was doubled last week, though not to august levels.

My rough estimate of cost is extra £2-3billion on what JSS would have cost. Depends on take up.
Read 10 tweets
29 Oct
IMF Article IV initial health check of the UK economy about to report back. We will hear from Chancellor @rishisunak, and IMF chief @kgeorgieva very shortly...
IMF cuts UK economic forecast from last month for this year and next
2020 - -10.4%
2021 +5.7%
But praises “aggressive policy response - one of the best examples of coordinated action globally” on the economy...
IMF: “Room to loosen monetary policy in the near term”

Backs “additional fiscal push”... “there is a case to spend more” than current plans to lift investment...

UK economy “now faces headwinds from a second Covid-19 wave, Brexit related uncertainty, rising unemployment..”
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!