Thread by @AlamedaTrabucco

What happened here? Quick thread while I brace for impact, in a way.

Heading into the past few weekdays U.S. time, there's been a kind of predictable pattern. Everyone knows the narrative by now -- BTC is getting bought up by institutional investors and other entities in the U.S. So BTC has been going up in the morning! Makes sense.

But let's suppose that the world understands this pattern -- won't it just go up before that? Well, today that *did* happen -- from about noon HK time right until the big crash at the peak, BTC steadily rose, presumably as people expected BTC to get bought during U.S. hours.

This is actually something I've seen time and again -- as a predictable, fundamentals-based pattern arises in the market at a certain time each day, its effect will tend to shift *earlier* as more people figure it out and try to pre-position for it.

Some examples of trades where this effect happened: Binance listing effect (coins used to pump a lot on listing -- over time the pump happened sooner and sooner til it *dumped* on listing), alts go up after BTC (was true, eventually they started just going up together if at all).

And many others! So even though we've seen this effect previous days this week, the BTC rally during Asia day tells me that it's not clear what to expect *during* U.S. day, because maybe all the impact has happened already and U.S. people won't want to buy!

I also skipped over the evolution that happened just yesterday -- there was a rally during Asia day that kept up through *part* of the U.S. day but petered out. What should that mean to expect today?

Well, a priori who knows -- the most recent thing we know is a slow rally happened into U.S. morning, at least. What's the next step if we think people expect that?

Honestly? Yeah, it kinda is exactly what happened -- a SUPER sharp rise to a local maximum price, about 19550. What happened right afterward -- a super sharp drop -- was a result of, you guessed it, liquidations.

See, the fast buying was REALLY levered up, as you might expect for something so aggressive and fast. Mostly happened on Binance BTC perps (surprise, surprise) -- once a small drawdown happened, the SUPER levered "apes" got pretty swiftly punished.

After that BTC rebounded fast and then has kinda bounced around -- sorta what you expect if people are now still unsure what the U.S. markets will do today. As I write this BTC actually is looking like it might make another go at that ATH (whatever number that actually is :P).

Whatever this ride ends up looking like, I think we can count on one thing: it will be bumpy.

(OK, maybe we can count on a second thing: liquidations will be involved.)