It seems International Aid is the hot topic right now so I suppose I should do a thread to at least maintain some sort of veneer of relevance for the benefit of newer followers. So here we go, /1
IA has a bunch of problems associated with it, most of which come back to the word "credibility". A lot of this is to do with the wheres and the hows of UK aid. So let's start with the where /2
For example last year the UK's biggest destination for bilateral aid was Pakistan. The same country that was keeping Bin Laden tucked away safely all those years and has its own nuclear weapons program. £305 million. /3
Number 17 on the list was India, with £108 million. This is the same India who have budgeted $1.9 billion for their space agency this financial year. If you can't see a problem with that then I'm not really sure what to say, /4
The second issue is with the how. How is the money spent? What is it focused on? The government has some vague, quite broad objectives on its website, but no clearly articulated plan of "this is what we want to achieve and this is how it will be done," /5
That's before we get into the estimated 15% ish of development money that annually gets embezzled through corruption and in many cases quite literally ends up in Swiss bank accounts. This suggests we have problems with delivery. /6
If you're going to spend around £15bn a year on aid, it is incumbent on the government to make sure the money is spent well and for most of it to end up being delivered where it matters. Advocates for aid should be advocating for better spending practices. /7
One potential option would be more delivery through 3rd party providers of suitable reputation, the people actually delivering the aid at the coal face, instead of through government organisations in the receiving country. /8
The final leg of the credibility issue goes back full circle to where. Politically it is difficult to explain why you can't fund better sheltering options for homeless people here in the UK while you can find money for aid overseas. /9
There is an instinctive, and quite natural I think, response from people here at home to question the sanity of sending billions abroad in aid, especially to dodgy/"undeserving" regimes, when there are so many problems left unaddressed back at home. /10
Personal view? Slash it in half. A fair chunk of UK aid is spent multi-laterally through organisations like the UN and some aid is still benefical. But the amounts being spent currently are absurd and difficult to justify. /11
If it seems miserly, could someone explain why Saint Arden of Kiwi land gets a free pass, despite NZ spending less than 0.3% of its GDP on International Aid? Even super progressive, super kind Canada doesn't meet that target. /12
If most of the rest of the world is going to laugh at the target and not deliver, I don't see why the UK should allow itself to be taken for a ride yet again. At some point you have to just say "no" and dig your heels in. /13
Now let's address the soft power argument, which I'm sure plenty of people are waiting to bring up. In short, I think it's largely bollocks. Could someone explain what soft power benefits the UK has derived from its aid spend to Pakistan? /14
What about Ethiopia, the second largest recipient of bilateral UK aid? Afghanistan (3rd)? Yemen (4th)? South Sudan (8th... Ha!)? I often hear the soft power argument but there seems not only to be little evidence of it, but little thought as to what soft power actually is /15
Is it derived from funding aid spending, which on the surface at least is suppose to neutral in its delivery? Or is it derived from things like the ability to speak out at the UN in support of someone, or to raise their cause at the WTO? /16
Aid, if you're going to do it, shouldn't be about soft power. Partly because I don't think it buys anywhere near as much as people think. And partly because that seems quite contrary to the spirit and true purpose of IA. /17
It also just gets under my skin a little to hear some people pontificate about aid as a humanitarian cause when they refuse to accept or endorse many of the known, much better strategies for aiding said countries. /18
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With all this wrangling about what the Type 32 may or may not be, it might be worth noting something that Babock told investors in a recent briefing on the Type 31. /1
"This is a no-change contract, deliberately structured to specifically restrict customer change." This might explain why the government needs a Type 32, perhaps the RN desiring changes but having to wait to get them. /2
In terms of what Type 32 could be, if based off Type 31, remember that Type 31 is basically just a Danish Iver Huitfeldt class frigate with a bunch of shit removed above the waterline and more Brrrrritish on the inside. /3
Thread time. You should read Maajid's thread anyway because I think it's quite interesting and shows that people outside defence Twitter are thinking on the subject, but I want to dive deeper into this specific statement about "preparing for war". 1/
First, caveat emptor, let's be clear that you can discuss the rationale behind a nations actions without agreeing with or endorsing their strategy and methods. This shouldn't need stating, but hey, it's Twitter. /2
China might be preparing for war, but it's unlikely to be offensive in nature, at least in the sense of circa 1930s Japan. The Chinese Belt and Road initiative is a solution to an unfortunate problem of Chinese geography. /3
"The analysis does not make judgements about any future UK Government policy decisions or responses" - Not a good start
From the outset the paper is quite transparent. It's going to attempt to show why the governments current policy approach to Brexit is the bestest. It is heavil tinted with political bias, which is precisely why the office for budget responsbility was set up.
OK. let's start with the Bank of England report. For reference here is the PDF if anyone wants to actually read the whole thing and not just the twitter highlights;bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/fi…
Let's start with a defence of the BoE. The banks analysis represents scenarios, not a forecast. This is an important distinction to make. A scenario relies on making a series of connected assumptions and then mapping out what happens from there. Here ends the defence of the BoE
The first critcism, as noted by many, is that the BoE only looked at negative scenarios. It did not consider any more positive scenarios that might come from a no-deal Brexit. The entire document as a result carries something of a natural bias.
Piece on the BBC just now about Trump was very instructive in general voting/poltiical theory. Interviewing residents in New York the responses were mainly along the lines of "who cares, they're all criminals" and "if he's getting things done, I don't care if he's a dick".
This is something that is often overlooked when people study the reasoning behind voter intentions and the general mentality of voters. Voters want results and they're prepared to overlook certain flaws in order to get those results.
This is difficult for many journalists and politicos to understand; that the public are pragmatic and a lot more savvy then they're given credit for. This in turn is instructive about Brexit and the attacks on Leave voters for example.