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Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
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26 Nov, 12 tweets, 3 min read
Here is my commentary on @PHE_uk's Covid surveillance report for week 48 (up to week 47 data) released on 26 November 2020.

The headline:
"Surveillance indicators suggest that COVID-19 activity at a national level has decreased during week 47."
Cases and positivity have finallly decreased. This is very good news, but expected taking into account the effects of Lockdown 2.
Where are the detected cases this week?
Still many outbreaks detected. Fewer in workplaces (presumably due to lockdown). Reduction in care home outbreaks.
Outbreaks/clusters in schools roughly constant (around 250 per week)
Contacts by exposure very predominantly due to household contacts (as lockdown in effect)
Reduction in hospital admission rates nationally (good news) ...
... but regional variation
ICU admissions falling
... but many admissions
Excess deaths reported in:
- England
- 75-84s
- North East
- North West
- West Midlands
- Yorkshire & Humber
Here are my heatmaps based on these data:

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
26 Nov
Here is the justification document for which regions were placed into each tier from 2 December.

A walkthrough thread.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
This updates the Government's prior systems, documented here:
Here's the summary chart. Image
Read 23 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
26 Nov
As soon as we come out of lockdown, we will have one million students moving around the country returning home. Some of these will be infected and will go on to spread the virus. Here's the latest data from PHE showing transmission last week in lockdown

We also have a significant issue when schools break up. These are the latest data for outbreaks in schools

Schools break up around 19 December. What happens if children are infected on the last day of term?
Read 5 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
26 Nov
Here are my heatmaps for the data published by @PHE_uk on 26 November. A thread.
Detected cases falling in each age group. Smallest relative fall in 5-9 year olds. Largest relative fall in 20-29 year olds
Here is the monochrome version.
Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
26 Nov
With Tier 3 regions now having access to mass testing, this could lead to higher case rates (due to more positive cases being detected from these tests) and the likelihood that these areas stay in Tier 3 for longer.
When areas are reviewed on 16 December, we should take into account the number and type of tests being performed in each area.

Unfortunately, the data we now have doesn't distinguish between symptomatic (PCR) and asymptomatice (LFD with positives confirmed by PCR)
Demand for testing has also fallen, with the number of tests undertaken not following the trajectory of ONS survey data.

One way of analyzing this is to look at positivity (see here: ) by area rather than age.

Unfortunately, this data is not published.
Read 4 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
23 Nov
Oxford university:
"we will be able to offer two lateral flow tests to all students in 8th week so that you can safely travel home for Christmas confident that you will not be endangering the health of your family and friends. "

I do not agree with the wording of this statement
First, these are lateral flow tests meaning a false negative rate of say 3 out of 4 - so if you have the virus, it will detect this three out of four times...
Also, these are only results *on the day of the test*.

It *does not* mean you are not going to be infecious when you return home
Read 4 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
23 Nov
Excellent news that the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is effective

astrazeneca.com/media-centre/p…

Two different regimens were used...
"One dosing regimen (n=2,741) showed vaccine efficacy of 90% when AZD1222 was given as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least one month apart, ...
"and another dosing regimen (n=8,895) showed 62% efficacy when given as two full doses at least one month apart. ...
Read 4 tweets

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