Oxford university:
"we will be able to offer two lateral flow tests to all students in 8th week so that you can safely travel home for Christmas confident that you will not be endangering the health of your family and friends. "
I do not agree with the wording of this statement
First, these are lateral flow tests meaning a false negative rate of say 3 out of 4 - so if you have the virus, it will detect this three out of four times...
Also, these are only results *on the day of the test*.
It *does not* mean you are not going to be infecious when you return home
Therefore the statement
'[you can be] confident that you will not be endangering the health of your family and friends' needs to be interpreted with caution.
You can be more confident, but you can't be confident that you won't infect your family and friends when you return home
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"One dosing regimen (n=2,741) showed vaccine efficacy of 90% when AZD1222 was given as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least one month apart, ...
"and another dosing regimen (n=8,895) showed 62% efficacy when given as two full doses at least one month apart. ...
Here is my thread showing my new heatmaps for detected cases, positivity, hospital and ICU admissions.
We have reached the grim milestone of over 200 cases per 100,000 in the over-80s. There were 8 cases per 100,000 in this age group in August.
Not all cases are detected.
Monochrome version
Positivity of tests for males in Pillar 2. Positivity is the number of people testing positive divided by the number of people tested. Greater than 5% means that not enough testing is being done.
This does not appear to be due to cases being disproportionately added in Liverpool due to Lateral Flow Device testing - ( table below based on that from )
* This does not appear to be due to cases being disproportionately added in Liverpool due to Lateral Flow Device testing - ( table below based on that from @avds )
Guidance for universities / students for returning home:
- what lateral flow device (LFD) tests are being used
- what is the sensitivity of these tests
- how is the risk of testing negative being communicated
- what are the results of the Liverpool pilot
The guidance discussed the high specificity of the tests but is silent on the sensitivity.
The guidance says
"This will provide additional assurances that where tests are negative, there is a reduced risk in students travelling home, and a reduced risk of transmission to their family and home community."
But this does *not* mean you will not be infectious.