Oxford university:
"we will be able to offer two lateral flow tests to all students in 8th week so that you can safely travel home for Christmas confident that you will not be endangering the health of your family and friends. "

I do not agree with the wording of this statement
First, these are lateral flow tests meaning a false negative rate of say 3 out of 4 - so if you have the virus, it will detect this three out of four times...
Also, these are only results *on the day of the test*.

It *does not* mean you are not going to be infecious when you return home
Therefore the statement
'[you can be] confident that you will not be endangering the health of your family and friends' needs to be interpreted with caution.

You can be more confident, but you can't be confident that you won't infect your family and friends when you return home

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dr Duncan Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Dr_D_Robertson

23 Nov
Excellent news that the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is effective

astrazeneca.com/media-centre/p…

Two different regimens were used...
"One dosing regimen (n=2,741) showed vaccine efficacy of 90% when AZD1222 was given as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least one month apart, ...
"and another dosing regimen (n=8,895) showed 62% efficacy when given as two full doses at least one month apart. ...
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
Here is my thread showing my new heatmaps for detected cases, positivity, hospital and ICU admissions.

We have reached the grim milestone of over 200 cases per 100,000 in the over-80s. There were 8 cases per 100,000 in this age group in August.

Not all cases are detected.
Monochrome version
Positivity of tests for males in Pillar 2. Positivity is the number of people testing positive divided by the number of people tested. Greater than 5% means that not enough testing is being done.

Each age group for males exceeds 5% positivity.
Read 6 tweets
12 Nov
33,470 Covid cases were reported today, significantly above yesterday's 22,950 cases
This does not appear to be due to cases being disproportionately added in Liverpool due to Lateral Flow Device testing - ( table below based on that from )
* This does not appear to be due to cases being disproportionately added in Liverpool due to Lateral Flow Device testing - ( table below based on that from @avds )
Read 4 tweets
12 Nov
PHE have released their latest Covid surveillance report

It is for week 46, showing up to week 45 data (2-8 November 2020)

Significant all-cause deaths were observed in week 44 (as well as week 43) overall in England , and in the 75-84 age group.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Confirmed Covid cases increasing.

Positivity decreasing slightly (but still very high in Pillar 2 testing)
Age distribution of detected cases in the last two weeks
Read 23 tweets
11 Nov
This is the evaluation report for the Innova lateral flow device tests that are currently being used in the Liverpool pilot.

ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-1…
This updates prior work where they were only shown to 'pass' the tests

gov.uk/government/pub…
"The specificity of the test was recorded as 99.68% - the overall false positive rate was 0.32%, although this was lowered to 0.06% in a lab setting."
Read 9 tweets
11 Nov
Guidance for universities / students for returning home:
- what lateral flow device (LFD) tests are being used
- what is the sensitivity of these tests
- how is the risk of testing negative being communicated
- what are the results of the Liverpool pilot

gov.uk/government/pub…
The guidance discussed the high specificity of the tests but is silent on the sensitivity.
The guidance says
"This will provide additional assurances that where tests are negative, there is a reduced risk in students travelling home, and a reduced risk of transmission to their family and home community."

But this does *not* mean you will not be infectious.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!