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26 Nov, 9 tweets, 2 min read
The latest development in an 'anti-any-EU-deal' campaign that has been growing among Brexit circles in recent weeks. Sovereignty so defined as to require the Northern Ireland Protocol to be rescinded in a deal, therefore a test which won't be met.
A big problem for the PM is no trade deal wouldn't be the end of the Brexit ultra revolt, as the next stage will be to seek a UK renunciation of the Withdrawal Agreement, or at the very least non implementation of the Northern Irelant protocol.
So in that decision which the PM has to take imminently he has to decide whether to side with the Brexit ultras on full collision course with EU and US, side in part for no-deal but quietly implement the NI protocol, or split and do the deal.
The path of least resistance for the PM is no EU trade deal but quietly implement the Withdrawal Agreement while claiming not to be doing so.
And there is nothing the EU can do now to help the UK's decision. The details of the level playing field don't really interest Conservative backbenchers. Fish do, but the EU already know that and would need to reract accordingly. This is now all on the PM.
Q: Why does the ERG have such sway on the PM when he has a comfortable majority? A: Because the Conservative Party is now strongly EU-hostile and sufficient MPs could make the PM's position very uncomfortable. Would they really? Will the PM seek to call their bluff? TBC...
And can Johnson rely on Gove and Sunak to help him make the case in the Conservative Party for the deal they are apparently supporting in private?
It is frequently the case in government that there are outriders for particular policies stating personal views or testing the waters for the government as a whole. This has notably not happened for an EU deal. The politics of EU relations is that toxic in the Conservative Party.
This is all reasonable, but made difficult by the way government and ERG rhetoric about an impossible sovereignty has amplified in recent months. Also why the theory of talking tough to get a deal was short-sighted.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
27 Nov
So still no progress, no walking away, and no agreement too late apparently for implementation on January 1.

A complete mess.
"Next week" has been the key week for Brexit talks for several weeks now.

If there was an agreement struck towards the end of next week there would be <20 working days for legal scrub, translation, discussion, ratification, implementation.

Still this @ShonaMurray_ and it looks like the EU are happy to facilitate UK indecision such that both sides can be blamed by business with insufficient time to prepare. Image
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Nov
Either

1/ How do we cope with access to fishing waters in no-deal;
(see e.g. ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…)
or
2/ How far can we go in a final deal haggle

Which means

We're still no closer to knowing whether deal or no-deal
There are many reasons in a negotiation, at this stage, you may want an urgent meeting. Let us say the UK offered the EU a final deal, same fish for a transitional period, no further on Level Playing Field. The EU say no. Need to clear with Member States?
That's just an illustration though, we don't know, until one of the well placed folk gets to find out what's happening. But it does feel like, finally, the next few days will see a deal / no deal decision point on UK-EU talks.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Nov
Remind me how President Trump's focus on the US trade deficit with China went?

Also a single market is not in fact an FTA (that will be Customs union).

I know its tempting to run away from a world that doesn't give you what you want, but not particularly mature.
This. And I'm afraid it does matter, because no country can afford petulance and ignorance to be national policy.
It is notable how little trade has been mentioned around the spending review. A government that seems to know little of how global trade works, in part due to four years of listening to those who invented their own worlds to claim no economic cost to their preferred hard Brexit.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
25 Nov
Look at the date of this story about no GB-EU sausage trade after Jan 1. Then wonder what happened next. If the expectation was the EU would change long-standing food import regulations, on what basis? (metro.co.uk/2020/02/18/bri…)
Simply - January 1 is the biggest one day change in a country's trading relations in history.

On average, every day, the UK trades £2 billion of goods and services with the EU and closely connected countries.

The rules covering virtually all of that trade will change.
I reckon the UK-EU trade flow is the second largest globally. Whatever happens with deal or no deal, the change from permissive to rules based trade is going to have a huge effect (and if it didn't all trade liberalisation is worthless).
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
24 Nov
Very difficult to prevent this problem without a high degree of trust between UK and EU which clearly does not currently exist. These are the issues of day-to-day trade that are already seeing GB-Ireland trade diminishing, and EU-Ireland trade growing.
And the question of trade rules for food products between GB and EU is inevitably going to be bound up with a UK-US trade deal, and the prospect of the UK changing domestic food rules to allow US produce to enter the country.
Tricky for the Biden trade team, a UK-US trade deal on the usual US model causes problems for GB-Ireland trade and sees the UK joining team-US with regard to food regulation deepening US-EU trade differences. But long term aim of US trade to support US farmers. Resolve that...
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
23 Nov
Hard to judge rumours like this which seem ostensibly unlikely. Acknowledgment that there won't be a deal? Desperation of both sides for something? Or just pure wishful thinking?

Probably best focus on the substance. Do EU and UK red lines allow for a deal or not?
Useful also to remember if we're hearing rumours and briefings about a UK-EU deal then we aren't in that much of a negotiating tunnel.
I suspect a lot of people are thinking right now (me included) - is there a game changer for UK-EU talks? Something to ease the political decision-making problems. Very difficult, and I haven't seen anything. Some thinking aloud make become rumour though...
Read 5 tweets

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