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Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
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27 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
I know how fragile digital records can be so I have saved the IEA's "UK Ports No-Deal Fear Checker" where they assured everyone we were all just hysterical remonaers over-blowing the problem.

You know, just in case a mysterious bug deletes it on Jan 1.

iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
I especially enjoy the part where one of the most influential think tanks in the United Kingdom fundamentally misunderstands what causes delays at borders and builds an entire thesis around the idea France doesn't have enough staff to physically inspect every truck.
Though the part where they rely on an Economists for Free Trade fantasy that non-tariff-barriers would somehow be illegal is a close second.

Drivers should carry a copy of this fear-buster with them and present it at the border to French Customs. That'll learn em.
The reason this makes me so angry is that every one of these hack jobs, designed to give flags in handle twitter accounts and Tory MP's something to wave around, pushed back on the notion that A LOT OF PREPARATION IS NEEDED.

And holy fuck, is a lot of preparation needed.
Oh my god.

I just realized this was released in November 2018 so they were talking about a No-Deal in like, March 2019.

Given the current status is: horrifying, anyone want to speculate on the preparedness level of business and customs 18 months ago? Anyone?

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More from @DmitryOpines

Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
27 Nov
1/ It's Friday night. I'm drinking cider. Let's talk about end-of-negotiation dynamics between Chief Negotiators and Politicians...

... because they're kind of ridiculous.
2/ Just like the EU-UK FTA has right now, trade negotiation typically get to a point where they are 95% completed but stuck on the last 5%.

That's because the last 5% contains the issues on which the Chief Negotiators have instructions from leaders not to compromise. At all.
3/ This is always incredibly obvious in the negotiating room, and is often pretty bloody clear outside it.

Michel Barnier clearly doesn't have a mandate to say, "You know what, forget the fish let's just sign" and Frost isn't allowed to just OK the EU's LPF.

They have orders.
Read 9 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
22 Nov
Right and wrong aside, if you're a political advisor to the Prime Minister what's your advice on Patel?

Likely to circle the wagons.

The only people whose opinion matters right now are fellow Tory MPs, and the public won't remember a bullying scandal when voting 3 year later.
Sure, Tory MPs could turn on him if the bottom completely drops out of his polls (and hence probably theirs), but is this going to be the issue that does it?

Doubtful.

The usual suspects are already running defense and pivoting this toward being yet another culture war.
The UK conservatives have enjoyed considerable success politically by framing every issue as a battle between their democratically elected ministers and some other force that's thwarting or undermining them.

Judiciary, the Lords, activist lawyers, Remainers, the civil service.
Read 4 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
1 Oct
PREMIUM

"Twitter leftists mocking the wave machine are betting against the ingenuity of the British worker."
-- By Higgins Wortlecock-Lightby III
"Build the wave machine before it's British values that are swept away by the tide."
- Spiked Online Editorial
"Brittania once ruled the waves. A wave-machine will return us to that glory."
- Nigel Farage at the launch of his "Mince Pies for British Lads Party"
Read 4 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
6 Sep
My deeply unsexy takes on @pmdfoster's amazing story:

1. Looks bad but We won't know what this is until the bill is out.

2. If this is a negotiating tactic, it's a bad one.

3. Those implying this will sink future UK FTA's with 3rd countries are (in my view) overstating a bit.
1/ Expanding on (3) because people will yell at me:

In my view, 3rd countries like Canada and Japan will consider the WA distinct enough from regular FTA practice not to begin questioning whether the UK will live up to tariff bindings or other FTA commitments over this.
2/ "What about Pelosi and Congress?"

Yeah, that might be a problem but:

a) The test for Pelosi and Irish-American Congressfolk is going to be if the border descends into chaos and violence again. Not clear this does that.

b) US deal not even remotely close anyway.
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
3 Sep
1/ As far back as 18 months ago, still prominent public figures were publicly saying crashing out of the EU with no transition period would either be no big deal, or actually quite good for the UK.

It's 18 months later. Let's check the papers.
2/ @Joe_Mayes reports the government is so concerned about port and highway chaos after transition it is using a statutory instrument to acquire authority to unilaterally slap giant lorry parking lots all over the country without local council consent.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ @adampayne26 reports UK food companies still don't know how to label their products so that they're eligible to go on EU and NI shelves.

The government has missed what the industry called the absolute deadline to inform them.

businessinsider.com/brexit-food-co…
Read 6 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
21 Aug
1/ Seeing this consolidated text being described as intended to "break the deadlock" a lot.

That may be what UK officials are briefing out, but that's not what consolidated texts are typically used for.

A thread.
2/ In a negotiation as complex as this, both sides rock up with their own versions of every paragraph.

So on fisheries you have two documents, both with a paragraph 1, 2, 3, most of which cover identical things, just with different legal language.
3/ For some paragraphs the text is going to be virtually identical and easy to reconcile.

For example, both the EU and UK probably define "fishing vessel" pretty similarly.

Negotiators can agree on a text for that part no problem.
Read 9 tweets

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