1/ It's Friday night. I'm drinking cider. Let's talk about end-of-negotiation dynamics between Chief Negotiators and Politicians...

... because they're kind of ridiculous.
2/ Just like the EU-UK FTA has right now, trade negotiation typically get to a point where they are 95% completed but stuck on the last 5%.

That's because the last 5% contains the issues on which the Chief Negotiators have instructions from leaders not to compromise. At all.
3/ This is always incredibly obvious in the negotiating room, and is often pretty bloody clear outside it.

Michel Barnier clearly doesn't have a mandate to say, "You know what, forget the fish let's just sign" and Frost isn't allowed to just OK the EU's LPF.

They have orders.
4/ So a round ends, where Barnier and Frost's teams made progress on the other stuff, but got nowhere on the core issues.

They brief their respective bosses and say, "We can't solve this at our level, what do you want to do?"
5/ Politicians at this point have three options:

1⃣ Make the politically painful choice to compromise, changing their instructions to Barnier/Frost;

2⃣ Make the politically risky choice to declare it's hopeless and pull out of the talks.

3⃣ Send negotiators back in and hope.
6/ Politicians never want to do 1⃣ or 2⃣, and so opt for 3⃣. Over and over.

They send negotiators back with the same instructions as before, hoping either some magical solution removing the need to compromise emerges, or the other side blinks so they don't have to.
7/ Every additional round they do this, the talks themselves become increasingly ridiculous as the negotiators literally run out of other things to talk about.

At some point, they've got agreed language on everything except the points their political masters disagree on.
8/ In an ordinary negotiation, this kind of status quo can go on indefinitely and apart from lost opportunity there's no real harm done.

Regular FTA's are an improvement of a trade relationship, not a desperate rear-guard salvage mission.

Regular FTA's also have no time limit.
9/ The EU-UK FTA talks are different.

Time is ticking.

Unless they compromise soon the two sides are simply going to run out of runway for sending negotiators in hoping a miracle happens or the other side capitulates...

... and there are livelihoods at stake.

/end

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More from @DmitryOpines

29 Nov
1/ When your least favorite uncle hits the sherry this holiday season and starts lecturing the family WhatsApp group about the EU trade surplus signaling their imminent surrender, I humbly suggest you counter... with phone books (Google what those are, Generation Z).
2/ Imagine you have in front of you two phone books.

The one on the left contains the names of every business in the UK that exports anything overseas.

The on the right contains the same for but for European Union firms.
3/ Now your sweaty uncle is right, the EU has about a 30% trade surplus with the United Kingdom.

That means we can (very crudely and purely illustratively) assume 30% more of the businesses in their book sell to the United Kingdom, than the other way around.

Point Richard.
Read 8 tweets
27 Nov
I know how fragile digital records can be so I have saved the IEA's "UK Ports No-Deal Fear Checker" where they assured everyone we were all just hysterical remonaers over-blowing the problem.

You know, just in case a mysterious bug deletes it on Jan 1.

iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
I especially enjoy the part where one of the most influential think tanks in the United Kingdom fundamentally misunderstands what causes delays at borders and builds an entire thesis around the idea France doesn't have enough staff to physically inspect every truck.
Though the part where they rely on an Economists for Free Trade fantasy that non-tariff-barriers would somehow be illegal is a close second.

Drivers should carry a copy of this fear-buster with them and present it at the border to French Customs. That'll learn em.
Read 5 tweets
22 Nov
Right and wrong aside, if you're a political advisor to the Prime Minister what's your advice on Patel?

Likely to circle the wagons.

The only people whose opinion matters right now are fellow Tory MPs, and the public won't remember a bullying scandal when voting 3 year later.
Sure, Tory MPs could turn on him if the bottom completely drops out of his polls (and hence probably theirs), but is this going to be the issue that does it?

Doubtful.

The usual suspects are already running defense and pivoting this toward being yet another culture war.
The UK conservatives have enjoyed considerable success politically by framing every issue as a battle between their democratically elected ministers and some other force that's thwarting or undermining them.

Judiciary, the Lords, activist lawyers, Remainers, the civil service.
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
PREMIUM

"Twitter leftists mocking the wave machine are betting against the ingenuity of the British worker."
-- By Higgins Wortlecock-Lightby III
"Build the wave machine before it's British values that are swept away by the tide."
- Spiked Online Editorial
"Brittania once ruled the waves. A wave-machine will return us to that glory."
- Nigel Farage at the launch of his "Mince Pies for British Lads Party"
Read 4 tweets
6 Sep
My deeply unsexy takes on @pmdfoster's amazing story:

1. Looks bad but We won't know what this is until the bill is out.

2. If this is a negotiating tactic, it's a bad one.

3. Those implying this will sink future UK FTA's with 3rd countries are (in my view) overstating a bit.
1/ Expanding on (3) because people will yell at me:

In my view, 3rd countries like Canada and Japan will consider the WA distinct enough from regular FTA practice not to begin questioning whether the UK will live up to tariff bindings or other FTA commitments over this.
2/ "What about Pelosi and Congress?"

Yeah, that might be a problem but:

a) The test for Pelosi and Irish-American Congressfolk is going to be if the border descends into chaos and violence again. Not clear this does that.

b) US deal not even remotely close anyway.
Read 5 tweets
3 Sep
1/ As far back as 18 months ago, still prominent public figures were publicly saying crashing out of the EU with no transition period would either be no big deal, or actually quite good for the UK.

It's 18 months later. Let's check the papers.
2/ @Joe_Mayes reports the government is so concerned about port and highway chaos after transition it is using a statutory instrument to acquire authority to unilaterally slap giant lorry parking lots all over the country without local council consent.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ @adampayne26 reports UK food companies still don't know how to label their products so that they're eligible to go on EU and NI shelves.

The government has missed what the industry called the absolute deadline to inform them.

businessinsider.com/brexit-food-co…
Read 6 tweets

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