Thread by @EdmundFordham

Lockdown Sceptics report how HMG Ministers keep re-discovering a document on the operational False Positive Rate (oFPR) of the PCR testing for covid-19 (thread) lockdownsceptics.org/page/3/

Scroll down to "SAGE: PCR False Positive and Negative Rates Unknown in June" for details. Everything goes back to this briefing paper from 3 June (thread) gov.uk/government/pub…

Lockdown Sceptics say this paper was "released" by Minister for Social Care Helen Whately "in response to a question on November 18th" but this isn't so. (thread)

For a start, Lord Bethell quotes it in a Written Answer on 24 October, as I cited on a different thread. Scroll down and the link is direct. (thread) questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questi…

And it was public and widely circulated in discussions of False Positives in July when I first caught it. But if Helen Whately MP is citing it on 18 November we can be sure nothing has changed ! (thread)

It's a good paper, exemplary briefing, and prescient for early June.
Anyone who cares about the future of our society should read it.
I thought "at least some people in Govt are thinking straight"
How wrong I was to suppose that SAGE and MPs might notice. (thread)

Here are some excerpts.
1. "The diagnostic specificity can only be measured in operational conditions." (ideal lab verification isn't good enough).
2. "We find [no] data on the operational false positive rates in the UK Covid-19 RT-PCR testing programme" (thread)

3. "This [the operational FPR or oFPR] must be measured as a priority"
This was a priority on 3 June, and nothing has changed by 18 November ??? (thread)

4. "The UK oFPR is unknown. There are no published studies on the oFPR of ANY national covid-19 testing programme"
That's ANY national programme.
Dimwit Ministers at least keep answering the oFPR is "unknown" - latest on 18 November. (thread)

5. "When only a small proportion of people have the virus, the oFPR becomes very important".

Wake up all MPs.

Remember that a proportion of all people tested isn't a proportion of all positive tests. That's the key. Think about it. Write it down.
(thread)

6. "Unless we understand the oFPR of the UK's RT-PCR testing system we risk over-estimating the Covid-19 incidence, the demand on track [sic] and trace, and the extent of asymptomatic infection"

That's exactly what we are doing.

You were warned. On 3 June. (thread)

7. [Recommendation 1] "An External Quality Assessment (EQA) must be carried out for the UK national Covid-19 testing programme"
" this could be carried out quickly and at relatively low cost"

An EQA MUST be carried out. This is 3 June ... (thread)

8. [Recommendation 2] "A continual rolling EQA should be used to monitor performance of labs across the UK Covid-19 testing network"

A rolling EQA.
Takes care of changes over time as workload and practices change.

3 June remember. Not like you havn't had time yet. (thread)

9. [Rec. 8] "Additional diagnostic methods could be considered to compensate for the limited window of reliable performance of RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2"

"limited window of reliable performance".
You were told, 3 June.

But great news - (thread)

Great News - we have that "additional diagnostic" - the Innova Lateral Flow antigen test. #GoWithTheFlow

The Army's trialling it in Liverpool. (thread)
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…

Even better, they know the oFPR of the Lateral Flow test. Even PHE has published it. Here's the number:

"the overall false positive rate was 0.32%, although this was lowered to 0.06% in a lab setting"

(thread)

gov.uk/government/new…

Note how you can get 0.06% "in a lab setting". It's the operational FPR of the whole programme, end to end, that matters. That's the oFPR, and it's 0.32%.
Bravo, Innova. You have been properly rigorous.

(thread)

So here we are:

Lateral Flow Test: oFPR = 0.32 %
PCR test: oFPR = "unknown", and unmeasured.

LFT has a rigorous specification.

PCR has nothing, zip, zilch, nada. The Govt admits it (24/10, 18/11)

No data on what it's error rate is. None.

(thread)

Yet on the basis of a wholly uncharacterised measurement, contradicted by the LFT in Liverpool, contradicted by the lack of Excess Deaths from Covid-19, the Govt sets out to destroy our entire society.

Go figure, as they say in the Bronx. (thread)

All free citizens of England need to get very angry about this, if you value your basic freedoms.

I have written (again) to @lucyfrazermp and so should you.

Here's a bigger article with a link to an easy letter-writer.

Don't hold back.

lockdownsceptics.org/pcr-based-covi…

unroll @threadreaderapp