Thread by @EdmundFordham

@lucyfrazermp replies !
Chronology:
08 Oct asked for oFPR in “Pillar 2” labs
13 Nov spoke to @lucyfrazermp with slides
16 Nov @lucyfrazermp email (other thread)
17 Nov asked for the oFPR and FDR of the Pillar 2 testing
20 Nov her reply ...
27 Nov my response … (thread)

@lucyfrazermp’s letter 20/11:

1. Apologises for ignoring my 13/11 briefing before her 16/11 email.

Tough when your constituents aren’t happy.

I gave her lots of material, which @MattHancock will see. And perhaps reply to. She says.

(thread)

@lucyfrazermp 20/11:

2. Apparently @MattHancock tells HoC 17/09 how ONS “adjusts for False Positives”. Looked it up.

@DesmondSwayne asks;
@MattHancock doesn’t answer.
Obfuscates with “rigorous Bayesian mathematics”
“One of his academics" will “take him through it”

(thread)

Ho, @DesmondSwayne, please take up @MattHancock’s 17/09 kind offer, happy to tag along. Plenty of questions to ask.

Please RT this, especially constituents of @DesmondSwayne
(thread)

@DesmondSwayne needs to know @MattHancock can’t bamboozle me with his “rigorous Bayesian mathematics”

- why, I’ve even made some humble contributions to the subject myself
(thread)

books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr…

@MattHancock has form at not answering @DesmondSwayne’s questions.

Here he is again, two days before: (thread)

hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2020-0…

Back to @lucyfrazermp on 20 Nov.

3. Quotes Lord Bethell @JimBethell on 24/10

(see other thread) … wait, told HER about that on 17 Nov ! Did you read it before replying ?

“The UK oFPR is unknown”. There you have it. It’s official.

(thread)

questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questi…

Other Ministers also squirming recently.

@MarcusFysh MP had a go, asks for:
the oFPR;
the QA method;
changes over time.

@Helen_Whately (18 Nov) can’t answer.

Here we go again: “The UK oFPR is unknown”

(thread)

questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questi…

always comes back to this SAGE memo:
(other thread)

3 June, Published 26 June.
Yes, FIVE MONTHS AGO.

“The UK oFPR is unknown”
– but they tell them what to do: Measure It, in a EQA

Excellent briefing. Sensible advice. Was that the problem ?
(thread)
gov.uk/government/pub…

@lucyfrazermp (20/11) abstracts numbers, from
other QA exercises,
other PCR tests,
other viruses - hey, never mind, it’s an indication:

[IQ range]: typical oFPR is 0.8 % to 4.0 %

Not Very Good if the disease Prevalence is 0.8% to 4% … (thread)

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

@lucyfrazermp flatters my “considerable experience” in this area. Actually no.

But in 40+ years of experimental physics, always make sure I measure what I think I’m measuring. Preferably 2 different ways.

Looking for that with our PCR testing.

Not getting answers.

(thread)

So I wrote back to @lucyfrazermp for another go. Here’s my letter.

They don’t understand how serious this is.

If they can’t tell us the oFPR, our PCR testing is worthless. (thread)

Govt refers to ONS Prevalence survey (random selection – we got chosen), a different operation.

It’s oFPR of the Pillar 2 and Pillar 1 testing we need.

And whenever we ask … “The UK oFPR is unknown”

(thread)

HMG told 3 June what to do:

1.Measure oFPR as priority
2.Do EQA of the UK national Covid-19 PCR testing
3.rolling EQA to monitor performance
4.Add other diagnostics

@MarcusFysh MP had a go at 1,2,3 …

(thread)

… and now we’ve a great new diagnostic test
The “Innova” Lateral Flow antigen test #GoWithTheFlow

gov.uk/government/new…

And its oFPR has been independently measured !

Hallellujah !

It’s oFPR = 0.32%.

(thread)

Why can’t HMG measure the oFPR of the PCR ?

LFT test : oFPR = 0.32 %
PCR test : oFPR = “unknown”,
from two Ministers + my MP.

Not Good Enough @MattHancock

#GoWithTheFlow Lateral Flow is credible.
PCR is uninterpretable ... (thread)

PCR is uninterpretable, unless you measure :

the oFPR of the “Pillar 2” and “Pillar 1” programmes

End to end.

Not the lab accuracy.

Not some other testing programme.
(thread)

Free citizens of England, write to your MP and roar.

Demand to know:

The oFPR of Pillar 2 and Pillar 1
Their FDR
Where’s the EQA advised 5 months ago ?
Where’s the rolling EQA ?

Why use a test with "unknown" oFPR when we've another where it's 0.32% ? (thread)

Gwyr Cymru, Scotland the Brave, Ulster ... write to your MPs too. Good luck to one and all

unroll @threadreaderapp

grab this @pdfmakerapp