If you can identify the jobs that a policy will "create", that policy almost certainly destroys net jobs
If you can identify the jobs that a new technology will destroy, that technology almost certainly creates net jobs
2\ In the first case, the usual reason you know a policy will "create" jobs is because you know it is replacing an efficient process with an inefficient one
E.g. replacing fossil fuels with solar "creates" energy jobs, but destroys net jobs by making society diffusely poorer
3\ In the second case, a technology can "destroy" the jobs it makes redundant, but by allowing resources to be better allocated, it frees society to employ labor in novel roles
"We are all unemployed farmers"
4\ Of course, some policies do create net jobs. But these are usually negative policies, i.e. repealing some previous bad policy
E.g. eliminating the minimum wage creates new jobs instantly
5\ I should have distinguished between "jobs" and "job types" in this thread
E.g. you can get full employment under communism, but that's because everyone ends up a farmer
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2\ Garett's scholarship (summarized in "10% Less Democracy") persuasively argues that outcomes of all sorts are improved when governments are a little less responsive to the political process, and a little more responsive to insulated technocrats
3\ Garett's prior is that Sweden had bad COVID-19 outcomes. He's wrong about this (for reasons that would require another thread to explain), but the assumption seems to have made him see Sweden as a nail in need of his "less democracy" hammer
1\ This is the weirdest thread about a lighthouse you will ever read
12 miles off the English coast are the dangerous Eddystone Rocks, which so terrified mariners that they preferred to risk shipwreck by hugging the French coast
2\ The first person to attempt a lighthouse on the Rocks was Henry Winstanley in 1969. But England was at war with France, and a French privateer took Henry prisoner and destroyed the works
Louis XIV set Henry free, saying "France is at war with England, not with humanity"
3\ Henry finished the wooden lighthouse but had the bad judgment to be making additions to it with five other men when the Great Storm of 1703 hit. He and his men were never seen again
The Great Storm killed over 1,000 seaman and toppled many more chimneys
1\ There's a sort of "science homily" about limes and scurvy:
That Lind did a randomized control trial with limes, completely eradicated scurvy, and then was ignored by the scientific establishment because they were all idiots
I was surprised to learn this ain't so...
2\ The proceedings from the Royal Society of London make it clear that the scientific establishment was, well, scientific. It's just that the data was confusing!
First, the proposed mechanisms of action didn't make sense:
3\ Second, there were cases where scurvy happened despite lime juice, as well as cases where scurvy was avoided despite a diet of only meat:
1\ Many of my conservative friends part ways with me when it comes to immigration
They believe in free association but see problems when it comes to free movement of people across borders
What about crime? Welfare? Voting?
There's a comic book that addresses these concerns!
2\ My notes from the book:
3\ I'd like to see @bryan_caplan address the criticism that some of his rebuttals ("Immigrants aren't that socialist!", "They don't commit much crime!") are plausibly true only *because* of immigration restrictions
Would those rebuttals hold with fully open borders?
1\ Has anyone seen data that compares guilds who ration supply through cap and trade (NYC taxis, floor brokers) to guilds that ration supply through arbitrary certification (doctors, lawyers, teachers, London taxis)?
2\ To keep supply below demand, certification must be stultifying; it must include material irrelevant to the job. Hence the legions of dimwit teachers and doctors
I would think cap and trade gets closer to efficient Coasian outcomes
But I don't know how to test the theory
3\ Though the comparison between NYC and London taxis suggests a direction for inquiry. Are credentialed taxis more expensive than taxis that just have to buy a license and pass a minimal geography test?