1\ A fun paradox of economics:

If you can identify the jobs that a policy will "create", that policy almost certainly destroys net jobs

If you can identify the jobs that a new technology will destroy, that technology almost certainly creates net jobs
2\ In the first case, the usual reason you know a policy will "create" jobs is because you know it is replacing an efficient process with an inefficient one

E.g. replacing fossil fuels with solar "creates" energy jobs, but destroys net jobs by making society diffusely poorer
3\ In the second case, a technology can "destroy" the jobs it makes redundant, but by allowing resources to be better allocated, it frees society to employ labor in novel roles

"We are all unemployed farmers"
4\ Of course, some policies do create net jobs. But these are usually negative policies, i.e. repealing some previous bad policy

E.g. eliminating the minimum wage creates new jobs instantly
5\ I should have distinguished between "jobs" and "job types" in this thread

E.g. you can get full employment under communism, but that's because everyone ends up a farmer

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More from @ElonBachman

22 Nov
1\ This is a thread about how the structure of Sweden's political institutions allowed it to have the best COVID-19 policy in the world

I think it will be of interest to @garettjones, who managed to be wrong about the facts in Sweden, despite getting the principles right
2\ Garett's scholarship (summarized in "10% Less Democracy") persuasively argues that outcomes of all sorts are improved when governments are a little less responsive to the political process, and a little more responsive to insulated technocrats
3\ Garett's prior is that Sweden had bad COVID-19 outcomes. He's wrong about this (for reasons that would require another thread to explain), but the assumption seems to have made him see Sweden as a nail in need of his "less democracy" hammer

But this is precisely backwards!
Read 7 tweets
20 Nov
1\ This is the weirdest thread about a lighthouse you will ever read

12 miles off the English coast are the dangerous Eddystone Rocks, which so terrified mariners that they preferred to risk shipwreck by hugging the French coast Image
2\ The first person to attempt a lighthouse on the Rocks was Henry Winstanley in 1969. But England was at war with France, and a French privateer took Henry prisoner and destroyed the works

Louis XIV set Henry free, saying "France is at war with England, not with humanity" Image
3\ Henry finished the wooden lighthouse but had the bad judgment to be making additions to it with five other men when the Great Storm of 1703 hit. He and his men were never seen again

The Great Storm killed over 1,000 seaman and toppled many more chimneys Image
Read 12 tweets
23 Oct
1\ There's a sort of "science homily" about limes and scurvy:

That Lind did a randomized control trial with limes, completely eradicated scurvy, and then was ignored by the scientific establishment because they were all idiots

I was surprised to learn this ain't so...
2\ The proceedings from the Royal Society of London make it clear that the scientific establishment was, well, scientific. It's just that the data was confusing!

First, the proposed mechanisms of action didn't make sense: Image
3\ Second, there were cases where scurvy happened despite lime juice, as well as cases where scurvy was avoided despite a diet of only meat: Image
Read 5 tweets
23 Oct
1\ Many of my conservative friends part ways with me when it comes to immigration

They believe in free association but see problems when it comes to free movement of people across borders

What about crime? Welfare? Voting?

There's a comic book that addresses these concerns!
2\ My notes from the book:
3\ I'd like to see @bryan_caplan address the criticism that some of his rebuttals ("Immigrants aren't that socialist!", "They don't commit much crime!") are plausibly true only *because* of immigration restrictions

Would those rebuttals hold with fully open borders?
Read 4 tweets
22 Oct
1\ Has anyone seen data that compares guilds who ration supply through cap and trade (NYC taxis, floor brokers) to guilds that ration supply through arbitrary certification (doctors, lawyers, teachers, London taxis)?
2\ To keep supply below demand, certification must be stultifying; it must include material irrelevant to the job. Hence the legions of dimwit teachers and doctors

I would think cap and trade gets closer to efficient Coasian outcomes

But I don't know how to test the theory
3\ Though the comparison between NYC and London taxis suggests a direction for inquiry. Are credentialed taxis more expensive than taxis that just have to buy a license and pass a minimal geography test?
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
1\ Just took three flights and passed through four airports, three of which are among the world's very busiest.

I was surprised by airport mask culture.

A thread...
2\ Entered first airport wearing mask. 99.5% of people masked. I immediately slipped mine down below my nose.

At check-in I took it all the way down. No comment from friendly check-in lady

Thought for sure security would scold me
3\ Nope. ID checker guy didn't care. Guys yelling about shoes and laptops didn't care.

MRI scanner guy pantomimed for me to mask up in the scanner, so I did, then immediately took it off.

No weird looks last the gate.

Thought for sure gate people would hang me...
Read 8 tweets

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