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ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ 🦠🤧🧬🥼🦟🧻 Profile picture
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28 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
The BMJ 'bolide as origin of COVID-19' is a joke piece though. Right?
"we have developed the unorthodox proposal that the Covid-19 virus, like many other pandemic viruses, may have an extraterrestrial origin and was initially dispersed in the high atmosphere from a disintegrating cometary bolide"
bmj.com/content/371/bm…
"In our model of the pandemic we argue that trillions of virions entered the Earth’s upper atmosphere sometime in the latter part of 2019. Virus-laden dust clouds were thereafter able to break through to ground level locations,
and spread of the pandemic around the world subsequently occurred through a combination of such infall, viruses transported in global wind systems, and eventually by person-to-person spread"
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More from @MackayIM

ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ 🦠🤧🧬🥼🦟🧻 Profile picture
28 Nov
COVID-19 testing and correlation with infectious virus, cycle thresholds, and analytical sensitivity cebm.net/study/covid-19… via @cebmoxford
Upfront-how one interprets late PCR results DOES MATTER. No argument. I am very much aware that late Cts mean less RNA (and by extrapolation based on history and experience, less virus) is typically present.
How does that relate to "false positives" & PCR cycle numbers?
A false-positive PCR result typically means that the PCR was positive when no virus had ever been present.
This is different from an infected person's sample not having any *infectious* virus, yet still returning a PCR-positive because of "dead virus"/RNA fragments being shed.
Read 14 tweets
ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ 🦠🤧🧬🥼🦟🧻 Profile picture
25 Nov
In the spirit of filling those with no PCR experience in. This is a lunchtime thread showing the progress of a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-rPCR) "run".
The thing being amplified-the target or template-is a tiny amount of RNA I'd previously made
...in the lab ("in vitro transcribed RNA").
At this point there's too small an amount of RNA to view or use to get specific virus info from, so we put it through some chemistry & cycling temperature changes (the RT-PCR process) to copy it to levels we can "see".
RT-PCR isn't the only way to do this but its the topic here
So after the ivtRNA is added to a tiny tube (0.2ml) with enzyme, buffer, water, 2 primers and a probe, it's incubated at 50'C for a few minutes for RT enzyme to copy the RNA into complementary DNA (cDNA).
No signal yet
Read 24 tweets
ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ 🦠🤧🧬🥼🦟🧻 Profile picture
24 Nov
Just a reminder that we have two-fifths of FA real data on how any single person or group gets infected by SARS-CoV-2.
We're not there to observe the process. We mostly can't exclude surface or droplet or aerosol. We can apply what we expect to have happened.
But remember...
...we do that using our current settings with all their glorious biases. Some of the knowledge that came before has evidence that's a degree removed - we know SARS-CoV-2 survives in aerosols & can infect primates; but we haven't infected a human that way.
We know droplets are emitted when we cough, yell & sing & not when we breathe or talk normally. But aerosols are always emitted so how do you know droplets were in play & not time (dose) of aerosol exposure if you're proposing close-up infection was only by droplets? You can't.
Read 7 tweets
ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ 🦠🤧🧬🥼🦟🧻 Profile picture
20 Nov
I think these graphs from @NSWHealth are both beautiful and really interesting.
Look at that RSV take off. This will be impact young kids and those with asthma I'd expect. But it's a *very* late season. Highlights that "seasonal respiratory viruses" are about more than "season"
RSV and RV peaks don;t line up - but RSV lags RV. Here's one hypothesis (lest call it the RV as MASTER hypothesis)- RVs wane - for whatever reason, lots of immunity - RSV able to get a foothold and takes off.
Or RSV as MASTER, hypothesis: huge cohort of immune naive kids for RSV to take hold in, pushes out RVs (lag due to this happening in the background, not being captured by testing for some reason)
Read 4 tweets
ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ 🦠🤧🧬🥼🦟🧻 Profile picture
20 Nov
Parafield, South Aust #COVID19 Media Update 20NOV2020
🎙️14,400 tests in past 24h
🎙️Restrictions to be rolled back but circuit breaker was needed
🎙️Contact tracers show person linked to pizza bar misled the team ("they lied")-new group being sought
🎙️SA public urged to get tested
🎙️Outside exercise permitted for those you live with or family groups, immediately
🎙️Stay at home order being repealed from midnight Sat, replaced by density rules (1/4m2 in premises; 100 in hospitality premises, 10/table; funeral-50, weddings 150)
🎙️Masks required for personal care provider
🎙️Gyms to reopen from midnight Saturday
🎙️Schools back from Monday
🎙️#PizzaLie=the person was working there for several shifts, not just purchased a pizza from there (no lockdown if they'd been honest!😬)
Read 9 tweets
ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ 🦠🤧🧬🥼🦟🧻 Profile picture
18 Nov
"the trial did not test the role of masks in source control"
-which is a key role for masks in reducing transmission *from* and infected 'source', to others
acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M2…
But, you know, it had some acknowledged overall issues.
"Inconclusive results, missing data, variable adherence, patient-reported findings on home tests, no blinding, and no assessment of whether masks could decrease disease transmission from mask wearers to others."
-there doesn't seem to have been a baseline PCR test (would have been nice, but not essential except to catch ? Image
Read 4 tweets

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