Reminder for those worried about calls for #CivilWar on social media. There’s never been a civil war fought where the average fighter was morbidly obese & struggled to walk more than a few hundred yards.
The worry with calls for #CivilWar should be increased risk of fringe domestic terrorism in 2021.
The more political leaders talk passively of #CivilWar, the more their followers will advocate for Civil War, and as a result, 1’s & 2’s will find greater justification for terrorist violence. The loud mouths lead the more silent but angry ...to targets.
The terrorism landscape coming out of 2020 looks a lot less like Bin Laden, Zawahiri, Awlaki, Baghdadi and looks a lot more like McVeigh, Rudolph, Harpham, Brevik & Roof
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Several aspects of the Proud Boys false incitement emails point to Iran - "FBI says Iran behind threatening emails sent to Florida Democrats" nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news… via @nbcnews
1 - was likely this was a foreign op as opposed to a domestic operation from the start, to employ stolen/hacked voter registration lists would lead to prosecution for a US domestic actor, 2 - Iran is both aggressive & sloppy, attempt things other states will not, and get caught
3 - cyber signatures for the webmail servers traced back to Saudi, an adversary of Iran, classic technique to tie up two enemies with one cyber move, Russia does this too, but, unlikely they'd move this way.
Several significant elements to this domestic terrorism plot pointing to why it’s much bigger deal than the one off guy plots “F.B.I. Says Michigan Anti-Government Group Plotted to Kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer” nytimes.com/2020/10/08/us/…
1- MI-Whitmer plot more than just 1, 2 people, dozen or more arrests so far, scale sizable and increasingly appears to be multi-state beyond Michigan
2- MI-Whitmer plot advanced far past “guy with bad thoughts, posts & some ideas”. See here a specific objective, defined time, deliberate recruitment, planning, reconnaissance, weapons testing ...way more advanced than most plots
Seems we’re going to do the plot line of every episode of 7 seasons of the West Wing as a reality show in 2020
I’m young enough to remember when President Bartlet wasn’t completely honest about his MS diagnosis & Stockard Channing totally covered for him.
I also remember how the Presidential line of succession works because John Goodman, the Speaker of the House, briefly became President when the 25th amendment was invoked (also how I learned about the 25th and then refreshed during Homeland Season 7)
Disinfo Disaster scenario “2. One or both candidates contract COVID-19
- Until the coronavirus is brought under control, we have a serious challenge ahead regarding the danger COVID-19 poses to 2020’s presidential candidates.” July 30, 2020
“As Election Day approaches, both candidates will be pressured to pursue more public appearances and in-person campaign events. President Trump largely refuses to wear a mask, and members of his inner circle have tested positive for the virus...” fpri.org/fie/disinforma…
“Every cough, sniff or misstep at a microphone, and at their ages they’ve both had many, could be exploited by their opponent and amplified from afar as a sign of COVID-19.”
This DHS report is accurate and correct “Russia is 'amplifying' claims of mail-in voter fraud, intel bulletin warns - ABC News” abcnews.go.com/Politics/russi…
If you want to see what Russia says about mail-in ballots, @FPRI@rjchernaskey has been tracking it, links to stories included. Make your own Intel assessment fpri.org/fie/mail-in-ba…
Ratcliffe statement again illustrates why not qualified to be DNI. Question at hand is election interference 2020 and Russia is clearly pursuing more election interference and democratic subversion at the moment than China
Ratcliffe statement conflates broader strategic aims, capabilities & limitations of Russia/China vis-a-vis US. Much to do to counter growing China, but has little to do with election in November
China spending about 1/10 energy on election 2020 as compared to Russia. Meanwhile, China expanding aggressively around the world in the absence of US leadership. Russia biggest issue for election 2020, China biggest challenge for US/World for next decade.