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Michael McDonald Profile picture
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28 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
#earlyvote update 11/28

New Georgia run-off stats from Friday. There are now 881,177 ballot requests.

I also updated the PA general election dashboard since @PAStateDept provided a Nov. 20 data file a few days ago and suddenly these data are a thing electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
I would have never believed a year ago that I'd be fact-checking vote fraud claims where Trump's legal team willfully confused PA primary and general mail ballot data
I mean, seriously, who could be dumb enough to put forth an argument that primary mail ballots are the same as general election mail ballots, and who could be even stupider to believe it?

Oh, this guy, a PA state Senator now calling to annul the election
Trump won many more votes than Lincoln, so he really must be an even more popular Republican than him. Greatest of all time!

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More from @ElectProject

Michael McDonald Profile picture
28 Nov
The "expert" witness for the Kraken plaintiffs analyzes a survey of people who have a record of casting an absentee ballot. It is a survey! Must be 100% accurate, right? But, let's dive into it anyway courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
The key piece of evidence of vote fraud are the "troublesome" ballots from people who are recorded as returning an absentee ballot from people who supposedly never requested a ballot. Must be evidence of massive vote fraud, right? Image
The most obvious point of rebuttal is found in this table (this one is for Georgia). See anything that might explain why people have a record of voting a mail ballot but supposedly never returned them? Image
Read 15 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
6 Nov
Why are the large numbers of Arizona mail ballots breaking for Trump and the Pennsylvania ballots breaking for Biden? A couple of reasons...
In Pennsylvania, most voters who requested mail ballots for the primary automatically had their requests renewed for the general. Since the Democratic primary was contested, there were a large number of Democrats who had their requests rolled over to the general
Of course, Pennsylvania election officials could not begin processing any mail ballots until election day. The large number of returned ballots heavily favor the Democrats
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
5 Nov
Biden's Nevada lead is going to expand. I imagine there are furious decision desk discussions happening right now as to whether or not to call Nevada for Biden. Given some media calls for Arizona, this would effectively make Biden the presumptive president-elect
The media orgs that haven't called Arizona might thus hesitate to call Nevada because they don't want to foster the perception that their collective calls mean Biden is the presumptive president-elect
I honestly don't know how Arizona shakes out. Biden looks good, but there is a fair amount of uncertainty. I wouldn't have called it yet
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
4 Nov
I posted PRELIMINARY estimates of the 2020 state and national turnout and voting-eligible population turnout rates

160 million people voted

Turnout rate: 66.9%

Highest turnout rate since 1900: 73.7%

electproject.org/2020g
That is not a typo. The 2020 presidential election had the highest turnout rate in 120 years. There is still a fair amount of guesswork involving outstanding ballots to be counted. I will continue to refine these estimates over the coming weeks
2020's turnout in historical perspective. Highest in a 120 years, but not an all-time high Image
Read 6 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
3 Nov
#earlyvote morning update 11/3

At least 100 million people voted prior to Election Day in the 2020 general election 🥳
electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202… Image
These are morning reports that include activity up to last night, so at least 100 million people really did vote before Election Day
This #earlyvote update includes reports from FL, GA, MT, NC, NY (finally sent me their absentee report), PA, VA, and WI
Read 10 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
3 Nov
#earlyvote evening update 11/2

At least 98 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳
electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
WA #earlyvote update posted

Washington becomes the 3rd state to exceed their 2016 total vote in their 2020 early vote 🥳

Nationally, at least 98.4 million people have voted in the 2020 general election electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…
Washington turnout is going to go higher. This all-mail ballot state has the longest post-election period of accepting mail ballots, if the ballot has a postmark on or before Election Day
Read 6 tweets

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