Thread: Ulcer Index (UI) – Bears’ indicator, Exit indicator.
Study of and indicator from learning perspective.
Not so known but a useful indicator.
The Ulcer Index indicator was developed by Peter Marin and Byron McCann. The indicator was first introduced in their 1989 book, The Investor's Guide to Fidelity Funds.
It was designed to analyse MFs. Ulcer index is known as a volatility indicator but I would not call it that.
It is more of a drawdown indicator. It measures the amt of drawdown occurred over a period. It is an entry indicator for bears, & an exit indicator for bulls.
Basic premise for developing this indicator was to take investment decisions based on the downside risk of investment.
I hv back-tested patterns shown below on 500 stocks (Nifty 500 stock group as on today) since inception on daily timeframe charts.
Below is some interesting information.
I was doing to design multi-chart setups. But the information in the thread can be useful for people practicing candlestick chart patterns. There are many patterns & we keep coming across more. The data can give you a rough idea about the past performance of patterns.
Patterns are defined based on the popular rules of identifying them. I have also tested bearish patterns for bullish trades and vice versa (Contra approach).
Criteria: Hit ratio & returns of pattern giving 1:1 risk-reward if the entry is at the closing price of the pattern.