@bnallamo Fair question. Here are a few thoughts from a non-regulator. First, @US_FDA, led by Peter Marks and Operations Warp Speed, led by Moncef Slaoui, recognize that every day matters for HCWs and high-risk groups and are moving with extraordinary speed. 1/
@bnallamo @US_FDA An EUA (Emergency Use Authorization) for a vaccine is not the same as a therapeutic, given that the vaccine is being given to subgroups of people who are “healthy” and may or may not be exposed to the virus. The bar for safety & efficacy data is therefore higher than for Rx. 2/
@bnallamo @US_FDA The dataset is very large (44K participants), and thorough analyses of safety & efficacy take time. Moreover, the studies aren’t powered to conclude efficacy in the subgroups being considered for EUA, yet convincing benefit-risk assessments for those groups need to be shown. 3/
@bnallamo @US_FDA The review will also cover the manufacturing process. Companies must be able to show they can reproducibly manufacture large volumes of vaccine at high standards of quality. It’s hard to overstate the complexity and difficulty of achieving this, esp in these timeframes. 4/
@bnallamo @US_FDA Independent external review is important in this process. VRBPAC (Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee) is meeting on Dec 10 and @US_FDA staff need to prepare materials. Note: ACIP is having a special session this week to discuss prioritization. 5/
@bnallamo @US_FDA There is a lot at stake here: making vaccine available for high-risk groups as soon as possible while maintaining high standards for scientific rigor, objectivity and transparency. And everything is happening under extraordinary scrutiny. 6/
@bnallamo @US_FDA I believe the professional staff at @US_FDA, Operation Warp Speed, and the biopharmaceutical companies are doing everything they can to make vaccine available to the public without compromising the standards we all expect. 7/
@bnallamo @US_FDA This just out from @jonathanvswan @axios, addressing the question that started this thread: why not faster? FDA reinforces the points made above, on the extensive database to review, manufacturing validation, and importance of subset analyses. 8/

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@bnallamo @US_FDA @jonathanvswan @axios We should always ask "can we go faster?", esp when lives are on the line. We then need to ask "what are the risks and can we manage them without compromising our goals?" The dual goals here are protecting health and maintaining public confidence in vaccines & the process. 9/

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More from @rvenkayya

1 Dec
Fully agree that a human challenge trial *would not* have resulted in an authorized/approved vaccine any sooner.

Disagree that every smart person was recommending a human challenge trial to speed up the approval process. 1/
It is not a simple undertaking to establish a human challenge model, particularly with a novel virus for which the pathophysiology is not well-understood and where a targeted therapeutic is not available for what could be a lethal disease. 2/
Safety is obviously a major issue to be worked out, and this is tightly linked to ethical considerations. Beyond this, it takes time to determine the baseline infection/disease parameters that you hope to modify with the vaccine. 3/ thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
Read 6 tweets
12 Nov
THREAD
In light of the Pfizer #vaccine news, a natural question is whether it's feasible to develop “better” #COVID19 vaccines after the first ones are approved?

The answer is yes. It can be complicated but there are ways to do it. 1/

First let’s break this down into three questions:
▪️ Why might we want better vaccines?
▪️ Why would it be hard to study new vaccines?
▪️ What are the options for doing this? 2/
WHY MIGHT WE WANT BETTER VACCINES?

After we’ve seen full Phase 3 datasets on the first vaccines, we may desire better efficacy in certain populations, longer protection, greater impact on transmission, improved dosing schedule, or an improved safety profile. 3/
Read 24 tweets
9 Nov
This is very good news indeed, and the *potential* implications go well beyond the @pfizer #COVID19 vaccine.

While we just have the press release, it's worth reviewing what this *could* mean for the pandemic and beyond. A thread. 1/

@BioNTech_Group
First, it shows vaccines *can* prevent COVID illness in humans, and it validates the spike protein target. We didn't know these things before today, and it's good news for all #COVID19 vaccines in development. 1/
Second, the early efficacy is quite high, although it may wane over time. We can't say anything about duration of protection yet, but it helps to start from a high level of efficacy. Higher efficacy reduces the uptake needed to significantly dampen virus transmission. 2/
Read 8 tweets
23 Oct
To be clear, it's not impossible, and OWS surely has assumptions to support this. And yes we must be ambitious.

But many will assume and/or communicate that these *targets* are what they can *expect* to happen, when there are many unknowns and execution risks. 1/
A few big ones: (1) we don't have *any* efficacy data, incl in elderly; (2) manufacturing scale-up is complex and delays very common; (3) first-time cold-chain, distribution and logistics; and (4) presumably more than one vaccine needs to succeed for this to happen; etc. 2/
Read 5 tweets
12 Oct
Yes the first COVID vaccines will face challenges, but the overall situation is quite promising. Thread.

First, we can’t predict how good the first vaccines will be - we need Phase 3 data. We shouldn’t assume they will be very effective, poorly-effective, or “so-so.” 1/
It's true that some "second wave" vaccines will be better, because they're intended to address gaps, but that doesn't mean the first vaccines won't be good.

Second, don't underestimate complexity of aligning multiple Phase 3 vaccine programs around a single master protocol. 2/
This would have delayed the Phase 3 trials, with a human cost. It's not just about companies aligning with each other and regulators - it requires rigorous matching of the placebo arm with multiple vaccine arms to avoid reaching the wrong conclusions about efficacy. 3/
Read 8 tweets
26 Apr
This is a thread on the use of antibody tests (serology) to gauge individual risk for COVID-19 infection. It's triggered by the recent @WHO guidance and the push for "immunity certificates" to get people back into the workplace. @jeremyfarrar @laurie_garrett @mvankerkhove 1/8
The science isn’t there, and it could get us into trouble for two reasons: partial immunity and risk perception. A history of COVID-19 and/or circulating antibodies may not translate to complete protection in all individuals. This is the case for circulating coronaviruses. 2/8
We’ll likely see spectrum of protection, with many people having "partial immunity," meaning that they can be reinfected but with less severe symptoms or no symptoms at all. These individuals may "shed" lower amounts of virus but could still infect others. 3/8
Read 8 tweets

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