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laurence norman Profile picture
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29 Nov, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Earlier this week, @jakejsullivan added edge of detail to @JoeBiden #Iran plans. This comment has got some attention -- that US would return to #IranDeal compliance "if Iran returns to compliance & is prepared to advance good-faith negotiations on these follow-on agreements"-1-
However if you listen to the full recording here (around mins 34-37), he also implies #Iran would need only to commit to follow-on agreements upfront and then carry them out once U.S. & Iran returned to commitments. -2-
"If Iran is prepared to return to compliance with the Iran nuclear deal...then the United States is prepared to return to compliance with its obligations under the nuclear deal AND THEN wld work intensively on follow-on agreements to address a range of different issues" -3-
"...related to Iran's nuclear program including timelines and including other questions that were not in the remit of the original JCPOA." Couple of thoughts. This implies Iran needs to commit up-front to these follow on talks but they wouldn't happen until both sides comply-4-
Also, interesting he talks about issues related to Iran's nuke program. So sunsets/ballistic missiles could be part of that. Seems discussions of regional issues, as he implies later, would be outside of the #IranDeal & would need to include other regional players. h/t @shashj-5-

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More from @laurnorman

laurence norman Profile picture
2 Dec
Pretty succinct. "On foreign policy, Biden made 2 significant points. First, I asked him whether he stood by his views on the #Iran nuclear deal that he articulated in a Sep 13 essay on CNN.com He answered “It’s going to be hard, but yeah." nytimes.com/2020/12/02/opi…
If Iran gets a nuclear bomb, he added, it puts enormous pressure on the Saudis, Turkey, Egypt and others to get nuclear weapons themselves. “And the last goddamn thing we need in that part of the world is a buildup of nuclear capability.” Then, Biden said, “in consultation..."-2-
"with our allies & partners, we’re going to engage in negotiations and follow-on agreements to tighten and lengthen Iran’s nuclear constraints, as well as address the missile program.” The US always has the option to snap back sanctions if need be, & Iran knows that, he added-3-
Read 5 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
1 Dec
Diplomats are concerned by steps from Majlis to push #Iran into major new breaches of #IranDeal even though parliament has no real power in this sphere. Rescinding Additional Protocol and building up stock of 120kg of 20% enriched uranium would gut remaining parts of #IranDeal-1-
That number is not randomly chosen either. It's half the 240 kg that formed the Israeli red line for how much 20% material Iran would need for a nuclear weapon. But one diplo most alarmed by a less noticed feature of bill: that Iran start working on uranium metal again...-2-
One diplomat said that is the most brazen signal that #Iran could resume nuclear weapons work (not just nuc;lear activity). Uranium metal is not for civilian purposes. It's used to build a nuclear weapon. That would be a huge step if regime pursued. (Again IF). -3-
Read 8 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
11 Nov
Iran enriched uranium stockpile continues to grow, now up to 2443 kg, far over 10 times permitted amount in #IranDeal tho the increase in last 3 months was moderate 338kg. Also Iran installing various advanced centrifuges in nuke facilities though not feeding some with uranium-1-
IAEA, in latest quarterly report, also called Iran explanation for the uranium found at Turquzabad site in 2019 "not technically competent." Said Iran needs to provide a "full and prompt" explanation for material found. -2-
In the report's final footnote, IAEA sneaks in some very interesting info. The "compositions of these isotopically altered particles are similar to particles found in
Iran in the past, originating from imported centrifuge component." Specifically, from #Pakistan.
Read 10 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
9 Nov
Interesting lines from @JosepBorrellF on Trans-atlantic relations to come. Frank, as usual. "It is standard diplomatic practice to avoid expressions of political preference. However...It is no secret that the past four years have been complicated in terms of EU-US relations"-1-
"They were marked by numerous policy disagreements. And we even saw some of the principles that we considered as the bedrock of the transatlantic partnership being eroded, and sometimes even emptied of their substance." -2-
"So, we welcome the chance to work once again with a US President who doesn’t consider us a ‘foe’ or believes the EU has been ‘set up to take advantage of the US’." -3-
Read 6 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
20 Aug
E3 have just circulated letter to UNSC presidency and issued statement rejecting US SnapBack move.
“France, Germany and the United Kingdom (“the E3”) note that the US ceased to be a participant to the JCPoA following their withdrawal from the deal on May 8, 2018.
Our position regarding the effectiveness of the US notification pursuant to resolution 2231 has consequently...”
been very clearly expressed to the Presidency and all UNSC Members.
We cannot therefore support this action which is incompatible with our current efforts to support the JCPOA.” France Germany. Britain #IranDeal SnapBack statement. 3/3
Read 9 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
24 Jul
EU has agreed conclusions to take its announced sanctions measures over Hong Kong. Still needs to get through a written procedure expiring Tue evening. Conclusions call for national asylum, visa, residence & migration measures, further limiting exports of sensitive equipment-1-
and technologies which can be used for internal repression, interception of internal comms or cyber-surveillance; explore scholarships for HK students, univs; ensuring observation of trials of pro-democracy activitists; reviewing impact of security law on extradition; -2-
freezing any negotiations on any new initiatives with HK; discussing at EU level risks of national sec. law on EU citizens; engaging and supporting HK civil society. EU warns will be closely watching Sep elections to see if organised in freedom, matching Basic Law commitments-3-
Read 6 tweets

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