COVID Update November 29: There’s this trite expression that it’s always darkest before the dawn.
I want to talk about the dark. And the dawn. 1/
This expression typically means— keep going, when it feels rough, muscle through, you may be at bottom. And I rather like this expression. For people with depression, they often describe things as being dark. 2/
And who they hell hasn’t been suffering through some depression?
I mean— we have it all: death, joblessness, Congress that’s abandoned us, Venezuela meddling in our elections (dead Venezuelans at that!), fear, Rudy Giuliani melting. 3/
I haven’t studied the Bible closely but I think Giuliani melting has been prophesized. Go look. I think it’s in Samuel. Or that Corinthian Trump likes. Or Genesis. Isn’t it great that he likes “both testaments? New and Old.” I’m so convinced. 4/
Normally people make this dark before the dawn expression when things look really crappy. Like “get a hold of Slavitt over there. He looks pale as a ghost. Someone go tell him ‘It’s darkest before the dawn.’ That usually works.”
And then I’m like. “Didn’t help. Still dark.” 5/
So I don’t blame you if you’re like—save your aphorisms, your trite sayings, your adages, your axioms, your precepts, and your maxims.
Used an online thesaurus. There’s many ways of saying these things that are said a lot. 6/
Because our darkness is well...kinda real. We have a lot of deaths, overloaded hospitals, and a rapidly spreading infectious disease.
That would be bad enough. But the rest of the world has that. They’re annoyed but they don’t have these other things as much as we do...7/
Fauxers
Federal support expiring
Anti maskers
Kristi Noem
1600 Contagion Avenue
Death threats on public officials
Scott Atlas
Anti-vaxxers
People who don’t really care
People who are just sure this had to be made up
8/
I mean we aren’t just dealing with a pandemic. We’re dealing with a society that doesn’t know how to deal with a pandemic. 9/
I’m not saying there’s a fun way of dealing with a pandemic or that there aren’t collateral costs that are bad. I am saying this: ignoring it is not a good strategy. 10/
But here is the amazing thing: when people say it’s darkest before the dawn, the people saying it usually don’t have a goddamn clue when the dawn will come.
They’re throwing a bone.
But this time we do. 11/
With the vaccine preparation underway, don’t take it all the way to the bank just yet— but there are incredibly strong odds that by mid/year, you & your family will have a highly effective & safe vaccine in your body.
In addition to wonderful news, it’s rare in another way. 12/
Imagine if you lost your job and someone told you that in exactly 4 months, with high certainty, you will have a new job again.
Would that change you spent those 4 months? 13/
In that example, would knowing the dawn is coming lessen your anxiety?
Would it allow you to budget better?
Would it allow you to be more at ease putting off some spending knowing it wouldn’t be forever? 14/
How often do you hear from people in a situation like that after the fact “Well if I knew I was going to get a job so easily, I would have enjoyed the time off more.”??
Don’t @ me with “are you telling me to enjoy the pandemic?” Well, unless you like to do that kind of thing.15/
I’m not saying you have to enjoy hard times. What I am saying is there is plenty of opportunity to find real meaning during hard times. During periods of sacrifice. During periods of loss.
But it’s harder to do that when you are anxious about when it ends. 16/
When we get to the dawn there will be lost opportunity. Right now there are people in need: financial need, emotional need, social need. 17/
One example— Listeners of #inthebubble have participated in contributing $50,000 to hunger causes, farm workers, new parolees, and the Navajo Natjon.
There’s always opportunity to give. But giving when people need it most is vital. 18/
We are about to announce we are giving $7000 more to a restaurant that feeds homeless people but was going to need to close. The choice to help them was easy. Now or never.
They will stay open. 19/
It causes me to ask: what will I regret NOT doing once the dawn is here. Is there someone’s suffering i ignored. Is there someone I turned my back on & now it’s too late.
I am NOT saving lives every day. NOT risking my life like so many every day. I will regret not doing more.20
That’s only one TYPE of example. What about taking some of that time people are forced to spend with our kids & doing something meaningful together? Or making sure our kids take away life lessons from the pandemic to build a better future? 21/
We are in the middle of a historic period and have a chance to make a difference. Knowing with good certainty that soon enough we will be out of this is kind of a ... gift of sorts. 22/
There’s another version of this that is just as important if not more. Not everyone is in a position to help. But this is the time for people who NEED help too.
A great regret would be not raising your hand & saying “I need some help.” This has been long & hard & we all do. 23/
I always admire people who ask for help. It takes great strength. And the people who get asked for help love to help the people in their lives. But they need to know it’s needed.
So we can all get to the dawn whole. 24/
And when the dawn comes, consider how sweet it will be. Whatever you’ve been waiting for the most— how that hug will feel. And how much new energy we will have. We can then begin the repair together. /end
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I found it way too difficult to say proper thanks this year to all the people who deserve them.
How do I thank people who are risking their lives, saving others while I’m safe?
How do I thank career civil servants who have been abused for 4 years & kept doing their jobs for us?
How I do I properly think whistleblowers who have been scapegoated?
How do I thank experts who have been ignored year after year & now called fear mongers & had their lives threatened?
How to acknowledge people in the free press who were called fake but created limits by exposing things when there was no shame to be had?
Is there a way to thank people for making sure our democracy didn’t die including when Trump tried to overrun the election?
COVID Update November 25: Why I will be taking a vaccine and why I hope you do too. 1/
By December 13 or soon after, vaccines will likely be ready to roll out. Tens of millions will be ready to go. Month by month. First to health care workers, then to nursing homes. Then to other high risk populations. 2/
There are milestones to get there and data to review but preparations are underway. I talked with scientists & distributors today.
There is an impressive level of preparation to make all the logistics happen. 3/
COVID Update November 23: With the vaccine progress today, what the heck is Warp Speed for real? It’s a great story but not what it appears.
Later today, I will finish a thread on this from where it started.
What is Warp Speed? Is it really a success? Who deserves credit? Where would we be without it? What did we learn? 2/
First let’s be clear on our accomplishment. From January 11 when the sequence for the virus arrived from China to December 13, when needles will start to enter arms, only 11 months passed.
This can be a 7 year process. Or worse— HIV & the common cold have no vaccine. 3/
BREAKING: AstraZeneca/Oxford announces effectiveness data that is 90% effective in 2 dose regimens.
This is huge news because @UniofOxford intends low cost worldwide distribution.
3 billion doses worldwide planned
Effective against severe cases and moderate
Safety data to come but one investigator who has seen prelim data told me no concerns
No profit venture
Can be refrigerated for easier distribution
Manufacturing in 10 counties
*Some evidence that it also reduces transmission*
Tested in 2 diff doses (on 90%, one 62%)