Thread by @ClimateAudit

we are inundated with statements about COVID deaths, but how often have you seen charts showing COVID deaths in context of all deaths? Not very often, if ever.

I've done one for Ontario (where I live). Population 14.8 MM.

2/ All-causes death rates are ~2100. Total COVID deaths to date ~2500. Here is diagram showing COVID deaths (black) stacked with (estimate of) all other deaths.

3/ in Ontario (as with CDC), all-cause death data is appalling delayed. Thus, reported 2020 all-cause values substantially under-state eventual results. Data is updated monthly (latest Nov 26). Deaths trend up with increasing population; recent "decline" is reporting artifact

4/ because of abysmally delayed reporting of All Causes deaths, number of still unreported All-Cause deaths from April on is, for most weeks, greater, even much greater, than COVID deaths. So there's uncertainty in my figure.

5/ the table below shows estimation problem. In Oct and Nov releases by Statistics Canada, tota; increments to weeks in July were over 500 deaths per week and about 200 in April-May. These are more, much more than weekly COVID deaths.

6/ I don't understand why public health agencies are so slow in reporting All Cause deaths. These bureaucratic delays seem very unfair to policy makers, who ought to be provided accurate and timely All Cause death estimates up to the current month at least.

7/ UK has very timely All Cause death information. Its spring COVID spike was very dramatic and yielded corresponding All Cause spike. So YMMV.

8/ I just located a Statistics Canada dset which estimates "excess deaths" in 2020 by province to Sep 5 (so far). During summer, Ontario had lower than usual death rates. To Sep 5 YTD, we had ~700 "excess" deaths, about 1/3 number of COVID deaths.

9/ incidence of COVID in Ontario (pop 14.8MM) has (luckily) been much less than comparable US states (NY,PA,IL,MI), so one can't extrapolate from our experience to other jurisdictions.

10/ in Ontario, it seems plausible hypothesis that COVID "competes" with "ordinary" pneumonias as Grim Reaper for very old people. Most deaths in Ontario have been of people over 80 and over 90.

11/ I'm reminded of a saying from my youth about pneumonia being the "old person's friend". Phrase attributed to Sir William Osler, a famous Canadian physician and a co-founder of Johns Hopkins Medical School.

12/ to be clear, I repeat that I'm all in favor of getting rid of COVID, but, in respect to lockdown policy, the relevant damage to be assessed seems to me to be excess deaths and excess hospitalizations - not casedemic.

13/ more progress on representing Ontario data.
StatsCan 2020 estimates to Sep 5 (www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…) combined with 2010-2019 reported (www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…). Shows anomalously LOW weekly deaths in summer. (Caveat: all-cause reporting very slow and estimate uncertain)