He makes a point I have in the past, which is while the percentage of direct traffic is nice, at the end of the day, absolute level of traffic arguably matters more. And for now, Booking is far larger.
Performance marketing is a skill, much derided by some, but nonetheless it is a necessary skill for almost all companies. Booking is the best. Airbnb has struggled at it. Perhaps they can survive on direct traffic alone, but that's a risky bet.
Exclusivity of supply is another key point of differentiation for Airbnb. I found these two stats interesting:
- 55% of supply is non-exclusive
- 67% of bookings are on properties that are non-exclusive
This point on whether customers are ultimately looking for a place to stay or specifically for alternative accommodations is perhaps the most critical, because Airbnb has made limited progress on hotel inventory relative to the OTAs progress on alternative accommodations
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"They are scared not of prison, the official said, but of being attacked by Trump on Twitter. They are scared he will make up a nickname for them. They are scared that they will be mocked, or embarrassed, like Mitt Romney has been."
attempting to discredit elections to protect yourself from a mean tweet
The timeline in the Bloomberg story on Hulu is that Hulu presented a plan to go international at the end of 2019. Iger and McCarthy were initially supportive and were to present at a Board meeting in Jan 2020.
Publicly, on the Q3 call in November they were asked about taking Hulu international and said they’d have more to say after the new year and that “we’re working through the formulation of a strategy in terms of what markets...”
On the Q4 call in Feb 2020, after the Jan Board meeting, Iger said
“We are working up a plan to take Hulu internationally. We actually have a lot of specifics around it”
“We do plan to begin rolling Hulu out, I’d say probably in 2021 internationally”
Did he say this with a straight face? The balance sheet is a strategic tool? The wash-writedown-repeat cycle remains part of their DNA? Wonderful stuff here.
The attempts to paint the M&A spree as part of some strategic plan as opposed to just stumbling around, runs head first into the reporting about said deals
Definitive evidence for the bored markets hypothesis:
“It’s better than the stock market,” Mr. Garcia said. “I got a bunch of these plants when they were in the double digits, and now they are in the four-digit realm.”
“Flora with sought-after features, such as splashes of color and holes in their leaves, are often the result of genetic mutations...
The ghostly white streaks of the Variegated Monstera Albo can send prices up to $250 per leaf.”
Ah yes:
“Longtime plant lovers say the craze for rare plants is reminiscent of a housing bubble, or the tulip mania that gripped the Netherlands during the 1600s, when bulb prices hit stratospheric heights before crashing.”
This story of Will Danoff getting a muffin is fantastic
Amazing
“I was like, Herb, the great Warren Buffett says he got — he lost a lot of money in U.S. Air. How can you make money in the airline industry? And he said, Warren bet at the wrong airline”
Concentration is the essence of an escalating euphoria. By late-stage cycles, many buyers are fixating on “winners” with the purchase motive being further stock gains, rather than any logic of long-term value.
Thus, as the market soars, attention is increasingly focused on those with the largest earnings and stock price gains, and interest in the B players falls away. (This concentration effect naturally favors larger companies, perhaps because they can better absorb a rising demand.)
The second principle is the outperformance of quality and low beta stocks in a rapidly-rising market. This is clearly odd behavior and is very rare, restricted as far as I can tell to some, but not all, late-stage bull markets.