Thread by @TheValuesVoter

There are 11 states that had a sustained pattern of voting for one party (for at least three elections) and then flipped hard - voted for the other party for at least three elections. And never looked back since.

It’s really interesting when you look at the patterns.

Oregon was a red state between 1968 and 1984. In 1988, Oregon flipped blue. And hasn’t gone red since.

Washington was a red state between 1972 and 1984. And in 1988, like its neighbor, it flipped blue. And has not gone red since.

1992 was a massive realignment election. A bunch of states that had voted for Reagan, Bush and even Nixon flipped blue and stayed blue.

California was a red state between 1968 and 1988. It flipped blue in 1992 and has not gone for Republicans in Presidential elections since.

Connecticut voted GOP in Presidential contests between 1972 and 1988 - five straight elections. But in 1992, it voted for Clinton and has been a blue state ever since.

Delaware, the home of the President-Elect, was a red state throughout the eighties. Blue from ‘92 onward.

Illinois was a red state between 1968 and 1988. It went blue in 1992 and has not gone red since.

Same with New Jersey. Red during the five elections between 1968 and 1988. Blue from 1992 onward.

And Vermont, the home of Bernie Sanders, was a red state not only between 1972 and 1988 but had been a red state for almost all of the previous 116 years (Johnson won it in 1964). But it went blue in 1992 and has been a blue state ever since.

Of these 11 states, only one of them flipped from blue to red in a way that meets the criteria I lay out here (voted for one party for three straight elections or more then voted for the other party for three straight elections and never flipped back). That state is West Virginia

West Virginia was a blue state for most of the twentieth century. But in 2000, it flipped red. And became among the reddest of the red states. How red? Trump won every county in the state. Twice.

Things change.

Since 2000, two states which used to vote reliably for one party have flipped and become pretty reliable for the other party. Those are Colorado and Virginia.

Colorado was red between 1996 and 2004 and for all but three elections in the previous half century. Blue since 2008.

Virginia was a red state for a LONG time. From 1968 through 2004. It’s been blue since Obama flipped the state in 2008. In 2020, Biden won Virginia by more than ten points.

I guess the moral of the story is that states change over time, just like political parties change over time. There are definite trends that have taken place in certain regions of the country at different points in time.

In 1976, a competitive, non-blowout election, Ford, the Republican incumbent, won 4 of the 6 New England states. Carter, the Democrat, won almost the entire South.

In 2016, Republicans made inroads in the Midwest.

In 2020, Democrats made inroads in the South.

To Be Continued.