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TheValuesVoter

1 Dec, 18 tweets, 6 min read

For all the Election Conspiracy folks out there AND to your tin-foil hats:

One of the reasons that people think something funny happened with the election is because some states which Trump was leading ended up flipping over to Biden.

Let me explain something.

It's called counting votes. And there are two things you should know:

1) Both Biden and Trump had the exact same number of states that had the other guy winning when only half the vote was in but which they ultimately won - five.

2) The states that Biden was leading when only half of the vote was counted but that Trump ended up winning are worth MORE ELECTORAL VOTES than the states in which Trump was leading at the halfway point but which Biden ended up winning.

The Trumpsters don't complain about that.

So here are the details.

These are the states in which Trump was leading when half of the vote was counted which Biden ended up winning.

a) Georgia.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

b) Michigan.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

c) Pennsylvania.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

d) Virginia.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

e) Wisconsin.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

These are the states in which Biden was leading when half of the vote was counted which Trump ended up winning.

a) Iowa.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

b) North Carolina.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

c) Ohio.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

d) Texas
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

e) Kansas
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Another thing: if all the counting of votes could have been stopped when only 50% of the vote was counted in every state, Trump would have lost the Electoral College by MORE.

The states where Trump led at the halfway point but that Biden ultimately won once all the votes were counted are worth 75 electoral votes (Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin).

The states where Biden led at the halfway point but that Trump ultimately won once all the votes were counted are worth 83 electoral votes (Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas).

Trump will lose the Electoral College 232-306.

Had voting been stopped when only half the vote was counted, Trump would have won Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. But lost Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

He would have lost 224-314.

Why did some of this happen? One reason is that different states had different rules for how different types of votes were counted. Some states allowed mail ballots to be processed before Election Day. Some states forbade them from being processed until the day of.

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More from @TheValuesVoter

TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

1 Dec

A lot of Trump supporters seem to be especially suspicious at the fact that Joe Biden won Arizona and Georgia by very slim margins. Despite the fact that they recounted Georgia BY HAND and found the results to be consistent with the machine results.

Which got me thinking.

Biden won Arizona by 10,457 votes and won Georgia by 12,670 votes.

I started wondering how many times in recent elections have states been closer than this?

To my surprise, it's happened a lot.

In the 2016 election, Clinton won New Hampshire by 2,736 votes. And Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes. Both smaller in raw vote margin than Biden's 12,670 vote win in Georgia.

In 2008, McCain won Missouri by 3,903 votes and won Montana by 11,096 votes.

Read 7 tweets

TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

1 Dec

There are 11 states that had a sustained pattern of voting for one party (for at least three elections) and then flipped hard - voted for the other party for at least three elections. And never looked back since.

It’s really interesting when you look at the patterns.

Oregon was a red state between 1968 and 1984. In 1988, Oregon flipped blue. And hasn’t gone red since.

Washington was a red state between 1972 and 1984. And in 1988, like its neighbor, it flipped blue. And has not gone red since.

1992 was a massive realignment election. A bunch of states that had voted for Reagan, Bush and even Nixon flipped blue and stayed blue.

California was a red state between 1968 and 1988. It flipped blue in 1992 and has not gone for Republicans in Presidential elections since.

Read 12 tweets

TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

30 Nov

This is Arizona.
Trump lost Arizona.
Since Trump got elected, Republicans have done nothing BUT lose in Arizona.

His loss in Arizona in 2020 should not have been a shock to anybody paying attention.
#stopthestupid

This is Georgia.
Trump lost Georgia.
Since Trump took office, Republicans have been doing a lot of losing in Georgia. And some winning by uncharacteristically narrow margins.

This was eventually going to happen.

This is Michigan.
Trump lost Michigan in 2020.
Trump barely won Michigan the LAST time. He won the state in 2016 by a smaller number of votes than the number of people who work at the Detroit Airport.

Lots of GOP losses since then in Michigan as well.

Read 6 tweets

TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

28 Nov

Trump has an average Gallup approval rating of 41% during his term so far. He is on track to have the lowest average approval rating of any President in the history of Gallup polling.

news.gallup.com/poll/326420/tr…

Comparing average approval ratings for Presidents:

Trump: 41% (so far)*
Obama: 47.9
George W. Bush: 49.4
Clinton: 55.1
George H.W. Bush: 60.9*
Reagan: 52.8
Carter: 45.5*
Ford: 47.2*
Nixon: 49.0
Johnson: 55.1
Kennedy: 70.1

* Incumbents who did not win another term.

Eisenhower: 65.0
Truman: 45.4

news.gallup.com/poll/116677/Pr…

Read 6 tweets

TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

11 Nov

What those who back Trump seem to ignore:

Of the 30 states that Trump won in the 2016 election, he won 25 of them in 2020.

And of those 25, Trump's winning margin DECREASED in 20 of them!

Comparing Trump's winning margin in the states that he won in 2016 with his winning margin in THOSE SAME STATES in 2020 (for states he won twice):

Alabama - Trump's margin fell from 27.73% (2016) to 25.6% (2020)
Idaho - Trump's margin fell from 31.77% (2016) to 30.7% (2020)

Trump's margin in states he won: 2016 v 2020
Idaho - Trump's margin fell from 31.77% to 30.7%
Indiana - Trump's margin fell from 19.17% to 16.1%
Iowa - Trump's margin fell from 9.41% to 8.2%
Kansas - Trump's margin fell from 20.6% to 15.2%

Read 11 tweets

TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

10 Nov

Eleven US Presidents have been defeated in their bids for a second term.

Trump is the only one of them to, so far, refuse to concede.

Despite the fact that several of them did better in their re-election races than Trump did.

John Adams, the first President to lose a re-election contest, got a higher share of the electoral vote than Trump did (even if Trump wins all the states in which he's currently leading in). He also lost the electoral college by a smaller margin than Trump has. But he conceded.

Grover Cleveland lost in 1888 even though he WON the popular vote (he lost the Electoral College by a only two and a half percentage more than Trump will). But he conceded. And dealt with the loss like a winner. He got elected again in 1892, beating the guy who beat him.

Read 9 tweets

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