Rob Lee Profile picture
1 Dec, 5 tweets, 3 min read
This is notable. Russia has deployed a 400km-range S-300V4 air defense system to the disputed Kuril islands, specifically designed to counter ballistic missiles. From the Kurils it can possibly strike targets over Japan's Hokkaido.
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
ria.ru/20201201/kuril…
And here's the video of the Eastern Military District S-300V4 air defense system going on combat duty in the Kuril islands (not sure which one) supervised by Eastern Miltiary District commander Colonel General Gennady Zhidko. 2/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…
The Russian MoD announced on October 26 that some of the 38th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade's S-300V4 systems (located in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast), which it received in September, would take part in an exercise in the Kurils. 3/
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun…
This announcement occurred a little more than a month after Shinzo Abe stepped down as PM. Negotiations with Russia over the Kuril islands was an important component of Abe's foreign policy, and this deployment/exercise is a rare provocative move in the Kurils for Russia. 4/
Second video from Zvezda confirms that the S-300V4 deployment is on Iturup island. The video shows a modernized 9A83M-2 series TELAR but no 9A82M TELAR or 9A84M-1 series TEL/TL that can carry the longer-range 9M82M-series missile. 5/
tvzvezda.ru/news/opk/conte…

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More from @RALee85

2 Dec
This is a pretty good article, but we should emphasize that all 3 of Turkey's TB2-led conflicts in 2020 involved supporting an ally/proxy with UCAVs. The decision to use force is very different if there aren't any ground forces or you're by yourself.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… Image
He is right that the offense-defense balance favors UCAVs right now in the UCAV vs air defense fight, but that doesn't consider the role of other military assets. Other capabilities can offset this disadvantage (e.g. hitting an opponent's high value targets with standoff PGMs).2/ Image
I don't think I would say Armenia bet on these systems as they had little choice. I think Russia learned this lesson before most countries, and its new SHORAD like the Pantsir-SM are designed with small UAVs in mind. The Russian military is arguably the best equipped for C-UAS.3/ Image
Read 4 tweets
29 Nov
I'm glad to see this, but we should also be looking at vehicle-mounted loitering munitions. We could equip every infantry battalion with a 7 ton truck with 12 or more Harops with a range of >200km. Are 81mm mortars' (5.7km) still the longest-range organic battalion asset?
For SOF, you can adapt loitering munitions to light vehicles. An MRZR can carry at least 2 Harops or 8-10 30km range Spike NLOS ATGM. You could deploy an ODA with 3-5 MRZRs from CH-53/47 helos that could fly 100s of km, drive 100s of km and then strike targets at 100s of km. 2/
If we're talking about a conflict with a peer/near-peer adversary, we can't assume that air power can take care of our tank-killing and other critical target needs. So why not push longer-range organic fires and anti-tank capabilities to lower levels (e.g. battalion/company)? 3/
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov
Thread: Some people are questioning whether the war in Karabakh proves that the tank is obsolete. A better question to ask is how Azerbaijan was able to punch through NKR's defenses, seize fortified positions, and exploit that success in the south?
businessinsider.com/drones-in-arme…
TB2 didn't seize fortified positions. They degraded Armenia's ability to defend its positions, but ultimately Az SOF or infantry forces had to take those positions while under fire. T-72/90S tanks, BMP-2/3, BTR-82A, SandCats, and MRAPs all played a key role supporting them. 2/
There are some obvious lessons from the conflict, but some conclusions are premature. We still have little idea of Azerbaijan's death total. If Azerbaijan sustained comparable casualties to Armenia, will people still write hyperbolic pieces about the dominance of UAVs? 3/
Read 18 tweets
25 Nov
Since I'm seeing a number of people tweet this article, I'm gonna type up a thread listing some errors, questionable conclusions, and weak sources. There are many important lessons from this conflict, and this article draws some wrong ones.
First, the article states that "Armenia had just received eight Su-30 interceptors from Russia this summer". Armenia received its first 4 Su-30SM in December 2019. As far as I'm aware, they haven't received anymore though there were plans for 8 more. 2/
I haven't seen evidence that Russia forced Armenia to ground its Su-30SM. Instead, if Armenia had used these 4 fighters, they likely would have been shot down by Turkey's F-16s or Azer air defenses. Plus, Armenian officials claimed that their Su-30SM never received missiles. 3/
Read 23 tweets
24 Nov
The USS John S. McCain conducted a freedom of navigation operation in the vicinity of Peter the Great Bay in the Sea of Japan today. Russia claimed that it violated Russia's maritime border by 2km. It was met by the Pacific Fleet's Admiral Vinogradov.
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…
From the US Navy's 7th Fleet, "By conducting this operation, the US demonstrated that these waters are not Russia's territorial sea and that the US does not acquiesce in Russia's claim that Peter the Great is a "historic bay" under international law." 2/
c7f.navy.mil/Media/News/Dis…
Statement from the Russian MoD regarding today's encounter between the Admiral Vinogradov and USS John S. McCain. 3/
tass.com/defense/1227061
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Read 4 tweets
23 Nov
Last week the Odintsovo Project 22800 Karakurt small missile ship (serial # 253) was commissioned into the Baltic Fleet's 36th Missile Boat Brigade from the Pella Shipyard. The Odintsovo is the first Karakurt and Russian ship with the Pantsir-M AD system.
The Odintsovo, formerly called the Shkval, was laid down in July 2016 and launched in May 2018. It is Russia's and the Pella Shipyard's 3rd Karakurt MRK. The Mytishchi and Sovetsk were commissioned in December 2018 and October 2019, respectively. 2/
bmpd.livejournal.com/4192251.html
The Pella Shipyard is also building the Burya (serial # 257), Kozelsk (serial # 254), Okhotsk (serial # 255), and Vikhr (serial # 256) the latter 3 of which had the hulls built by the More Shipyard in Feodosia, Crimea. 3/
bmpd.livejournal.com/4192251.html
Read 4 tweets

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