There's an interesting microeconomics / finance / incentives angle here, where if this is your anticipation, you might decide to book the travel now and expect that providers will be lenient with cancellation/refunds if conditions worsen markedly over the next 6+ months.
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1333749328620507137
Note that purchasing that option value is very much not a zero risk trade. For one reason, unlike financial options traded through a clearinghouse, you may be directly exposed to credit risk of the counterparty, which may not survive all possible futures.
Bonus lesson from credit card processing: the chargeback mechanism writes an option for the purchaser. The cost of it is bundled into the economics of credit cards, which are complex and involve multiple parties.
That option may have been mispriced in 2020 vis travel plans.
That option may have been mispriced in 2020 vis travel plans.
"Clearly you have more to say about that."
Maybe someday! (But no promises.)
For obvious reasons anything we shared about the specifics there would be fairly thoroughly reviewed, in a way that tweets generally aren't.
Maybe someday! (But no promises.)
For obvious reasons anything we shared about the specifics there would be fairly thoroughly reviewed, in a way that tweets generally aren't.
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