Thread by @JakeReif

Some non-Georgians on this bird app seem to be addicted to this idea that they (1) understand the dynamics on the ground here and (2) think that Democrats win by always pretending we’re behind.

Personally, I’m ready to blow up both ideas.

(1) If you’re not in Georgia, you’re wrong about Georgia.

I can almost guarantee that.

Y’all read a few articles and think you know this state, but you don’t.

Maybe you know what it was like 5, 10, 20 years ago.

But not today.

Yes, historically the GOP is heavily favored in runoff elections.

No, we have no data in recent enough memory to assume that’s still true. In fact, I think it’s very much not true.

Democrats are in a much better position right now relative to the GOP by all available measures.

Those measures are mostly circumstantial, of course.

But it’s the best we have.

The GOP here is in total disarray.

It’s bad. Like comically bad. Perfect storm bad.

First off—the President was THE driving force here for the GOP.

The GOP here is basically indistinguishable from the Klan. They’ve driven out all moderates.

They won’t even defend their *leaders* here, like Governor Brian Kemp.

They take their cues from Trump.

Perdue and Loeffler have no real constituency here. Maybe Perdue a bit, but Loeffler is like a prototype swamp creature (they both are really).

If Trump decided to turn his fire on them directly, no GOP leaders in Georgia would stand up for them in any meaningful way.

Perdue did run sightly ahead of Trump. But pundits nationwide completely misunderstood why this happened.

It wasn’t because these candidates had broader support. It was because they had just a tiny bit of their own support on top of TRUMP support. They just benefited from it.

Without Trump on the ballot, it will be VERY difficult to motivate these voters to turn out.

But it’s much worse than that. Trump is barely even *asking* his voters to support them, has cast doubt on the efficacy of voting *at all*, and has even got his voters ANGRY at them.

Here is what happened when @GOPChairwoman came to Georgia this week to try to get the runoff campaigns off the ground.

It was a disaster.

Y’all really think this is the party that has the advantage heading into the runoff?

Meanwhile, Georgia Democrats under the leadership of @staceyabrams, @NikemaWilliams, and many other amazing leaders had built a ground operation here unlike any other. Dems are FIRED UP.

Now, to get to point (2).

I know Dems are basically wired to be chicken littles. I know “ignore the polls” and “act like we’re 20 points behind” is popular.

While I agree, in this case, ignore the polls, I do not agree with playing like we’re behind.

Fear is a motivator, no doubt. But hope is far BETTER a motivator, especially for folks on our side.

If we believe we are winning, we run even faster through the finish line ribbon.

Folks like to be on the winning team.

So I will say it since no one else will: Democrats @ReverendWarnock and @ossoff are winning and WILL WIN.

We may be just a point or two ahead, but we could win by 10.

I’m not just saying that. It’s really possible.

See, 2008.

https://twitter.com/jakereif/status/1329072283571273745

Running away with a runoff is obviously not easy, but it’s possible, because it ALL comes down to turnout.

In 2008, this landslide occurred after a razor tight general election, even tho BOTH candidates lost a massive amount of raw votes.

Will this happen again, in reverse? I won’t say it WILL, but I will say it CAN.

The GOP has a massive amount of work ahead to turn out Trump voters. Can they do it? Of course.

But the wind is at OUR backs, not theirs.

This is why *I* am so focused on fundraising for the candidates, trying to overcome all of the oxygen being sucked up by SuperPACs raising millions off #resist twitter for their fancy ads and billboards (??).

It’s a waste. The CANDIDATES NEED OUR MONEY.

secure.actblue.com/donate/blue-ga

With less than 2000 followers I’ve raised almost $13,000.

I’m proud of that.

But man is it still disheartening to see how easily Meidas Touch and Really American and the Democratic Coalition and *several more* are raising HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS.

That money is not going to do much, I’m afraid.

The airwaves here are saturated.

Billboards? Come on. Billboards do not win elections. They CERTAINLY do not win runoff elections.

We need money ON THE GROUND.

Warnock and Ossoff are great fundraisers and are making a nice amount, but their focus has to be on reaching out directly to Georgia voters.

They can’t spend all day online like me trying to raise money from the folks that can afford to give a little.

So you’ve got most of this money going to half a dozen SuperPACs that have NO FOOTPRINT IN GEORGIA and no ability to use this money anywhere as effectively as the candidates themselves.

Like I said, the WIND IS AT OUR BACKS.

If we can merely turn out our general election electorate we WIN and possibly by a lot if the GOP is unable to get its act together.

But we need the resources to power the ground operation.

So please please please stop sending your money to these SuperPACs. They’ve raised plenty to pay their own salaries over the last month.

We have ONE MONTH left to win this race, and to do that, we need to fundraise like crazy for our CANDIDATES.

secure.actblue.com/donate/blue-ga