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2 Dec, 7 tweets, 2 min read
MHRA / JCVI Briefing live
First phase JCVI prioritization overview Image
First phase prioritization. Only difference is confirmation of 16 as minimum age for recieving the vaccine (for phase 1 only higher risk younger people) Image
Implementation to mitigate health inequalities Image
JCVI advice based on maximizing benefit (minimizing deaths) - operational constraints mentioned in press conference -

'whether or not that is actually doable is dependent on deployment and implementation' - Prof Lim JCVI

So... now to DHSC to work on the logistics.
JCVI full details here
gov.uk/government/pub…
And here is how Covid-19 disease is included in The Green Book - Immunisation against infectious disease.

It's a useful summary of where we are with the disease, vaccinations, and vaccines.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
3 Dec
Mass testing. Results from the Liverpool trial. A thread. And a big problem.

gov.uk/government/pub… Image
A bit of background. To get out of national Lockdown 1, we were promised a test trace and isolate system. That uses PCR tests. These are accurate, but take time to get results back. There were also significant issues in the way that the Government organized 'NHS' Test & Trace
The Government is now relying on a less accurate technology, Lateral Flow tests. In order to roll these out nationally, the Government tested these.
Read 11 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
26 Nov
Here is the justification document for which regions were placed into each tier from 2 December.

A walkthrough thread.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
This updates the Government's prior systems, documented here:
Here's the summary chart.
Read 24 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
26 Nov
As soon as we come out of lockdown, we will have one million students moving around the country returning home. Some of these will be infected and will go on to spread the virus. Here's the latest data from PHE showing transmission last week in lockdown

We also have a significant issue when schools break up. These are the latest data for outbreaks in schools

Schools break up around 19 December. What happens if children are infected on the last day of term?
Read 5 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
26 Nov
Here are my heatmaps for the data published by @PHE_uk on 26 November. A thread.
Detected cases falling in each age group. Smallest relative fall in 5-9 year olds. Largest relative fall in 20-29 year olds
Here is the monochrome version.
Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
26 Nov
Here is my commentary on @PHE_uk's Covid surveillance report for week 48 (up to week 47 data) released on 26 November 2020.

The headline:
"Surveillance indicators suggest that COVID-19 activity at a national level has decreased during week 47."
Cases and positivity have finallly decreased. This is very good news, but expected taking into account the effects of Lockdown 2.
Where are the detected cases this week?
Read 12 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
26 Nov
With Tier 3 regions now having access to mass testing, this could lead to higher case rates (due to more positive cases being detected from these tests) and the likelihood that these areas stay in Tier 3 for longer.
When areas are reviewed on 16 December, we should take into account the number and type of tests being performed in each area.

Unfortunately, the data we now have doesn't distinguish between symptomatic (PCR) and asymptomatice (LFD with positives confirmed by PCR)
Demand for testing has also fallen, with the number of tests undertaken not following the trajectory of ONS survey data.

One way of analyzing this is to look at positivity (see here: ) by area rather than age.

Unfortunately, this data is not published.
Read 4 tweets

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