CDC: Quarantines to cut from 14 to 10 or 7 days. I’m happy in some ways, but worried in others. Discontinuing quarantine after 7 days (w/ neg test), the “residual post-quarantine transmission risk” is about 5%, dropping to 1% for quarantine for 10 days. 🧵 washingtonpost.com/health/cdc-qua…
2) There is currently a large psychological toil to quarantine of course, and a huge problem w/ contact tracing given the strong disincentive to comply with tracers. Shorter quarantine lowers barriers for tracing compliance of course, which will help. But #COVID19 risk trade off.
3) To be clear, The 14-day quarantine recommendation from CDC remains in effect, but the revised guidance offers 2 ways for people to shorten the period. If a community has adequate testing resources, quarantine can end after just 7 days if a person tests negative in final 2 days
4) and the test can be either a rapid-response antigen test, or PCR test, but that takes longer to process.
5) Alternatively, the quarantine can end after 10 days without a test if a person monitors any potential symptomson a daily basis and has none. The exposed person is expected to continue monitoring symptoms and wearing a mask for the full 14 days despite discontinuing quarantine.
6) HOWEVER, we know from data that not even 14 days is fool proof. There’s several studies showing very long incubation that exceed 14 days too. We are making a risk trade for sure. Hopefully the extra contact tracing worth it? I really hope. But I do worry.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1247206316814336002
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