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Giles Wilkes Profile picture
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3 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Fusion, the spillovers: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

A good example of the kind of document even a sceptical govt policymaker might be won over by 1/
The spinouts alone are fascinating 2/
Fusion in short is a neat manifestation of the sort of industrial strategy it is easier to believe in: not a nailed-on certainty*, but lots of spillover benefits, and they show their workings. 3/

*@PinsonRing is the account to follow for some smart scepticism
(I find the document a pleasant contrast to the clunky cost-benefit, Green Book discussions you can hear: the fluid and multi-pronged nature of industrial impacts when the state gets involved). 4/4

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More from @Gilesyb

Giles Wilkes Profile picture
11 Oct
You know I'm not an uncritical fan of the UK government, but the past fortnight has really brought home how ridiculous is any comparison between Johnson's performance and Trump's 1/
Just play side by side the videos after emerging from hospital. Johnson really brought home how dangerous it is

But so much more: even if the PM did shift to economy-concerns early (in retrospect), this is nothing compared to the END LOCKDOWN idiocy we saw over the Atlantic 2/
and while our lot has been accused of hiding behind scientists - well, that's way better than actually *hiding* the scientists. Or promoting false cures. Or dissing masks

Why is the UK gov't so badly rated then? Well lots of valid reasons but.... 3/
Read 9 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
26 Sep
This Economist piece is the best summary of the estimated knowledge of Covid so far and is worth showing some highlights economist.com/briefing/2020/… via @TheEconomist

1. We have had million recognised deaths, possibly there are a million more unrecorded 1/
2. We had no idea at the time but the world was probably seeing 1m infections a day at end Jan, a figure that may have peaked at 5m/day early May.

3. Probably 500m-730m have been infected so far, 6-9% of global population
4. The risk of death rises 13% with every year of age.

5. The ratio of official Covid deaths to actual Covid deaths varies. In the States, the likely figure is 30% above the official figure of 200k
Read 8 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
21 Sep
Obviously, the reason I ask this question is that a theme is going around some of the Usual Suspects that since there is a FPR of 1%, the rise in cases seen since August is meaningless, we're being panicked into losing our liberties ...1/ coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.1128524…
But even if the people sampled are entirely randomly chosen, the implications of the rise of cases from <1000 to >4000 (from 150k tests) is surely significant - and they are not randomly chosen (unless you think the actual prevalence was practically zero at the end of August) 2/
(in fact, if there have been a steady 1500 people reported as +ve who are -ve who should be cut from the figures, the rise from practically nothing to 2500 in three weeks sounds even more worrying) 3/
Read 6 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
19 Sep
How do you decide what to read? Unless you have an infinite reading capacity like @tylercowen (ie see this feedproxy.google.com/~r/marginalrev…) I can't see how one can ever plan a reading schedule that doesn't leave a greater sense of dissatisfaction at what's left unread vs finished 1/
Context: suddenly finished Roosevelt biog and tech history by David Edgerton and wondering what next, and could not feel happy with any choice. My usual categories are: 2/
Worthy, recent-ish, "relevant" books about economy, tech etc. Like the monumental Age of Surveillance waiting for me, or Sapiens, or the infinite number claiming that the tech revolution is either over- or under-hyped. You highlight lots of bits but they're not really fun ...3/
Read 8 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
14 Sep
A lot of this discussion of the six-person rule appears wrongly premised on the idea that it defines a safe threshold i.e. "5 people meeting is safe, 7 isn't" or "six people meeting in work is fine, socially it isn't" which naturally inspires a lot of pointless facetiousness 1/
But that is OBVIOUSLY not what they are doing, right? They (HMG) are confronted with a vast collection of behaviours that together add up to a degree of infectiousness, and they are choosing which of them to bear down upon ...2/
... as smarter people than I am have put it: they have a budget, and since they think they are through their budget they are saving a chunk of behaviours, presumably those they deem to be least important economically or in some other wise 3/
Read 5 tweets
Giles Wilkes Profile picture
20 Aug
Gotta theory. Brace....

As @ianmulheirn has reminded us, a house is a Thing that Provides Housing Services. Take that, discount it - the housing asset is the right to those services - and you have a kinda theory of the price. Obviously, lots of room for speculation... 1/
Then along comes Covid and house is also meaningfully valuable as a Thing that provides Workplace Services. Not all houses are valuable that way, but those that are, rise in value reflecting how the demand to work at home has risen...2/
So houses - or at least some houses - are now more valuable. They've taken some of the value that has fallen out of offices... 3/
Read 4 tweets

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