Update of intuitively understandable plot on current #COVID19 situation in DE. Plot of #livesatrisk calculated from age distribution and age-specific risk. Lives at risk for the next two weeks still rising due to infections in the most vulnerable groups. This is bad news. (1/6) 
Inclusion of overall infections on sec axis (shifted by 2 wks) illustrates decoupling between infections and #livesatrisk. While infections are stable for 4 wks now the mortality still rises! Pre-summer the development was in parallel, indicating something is different now (2/6).
This needs to be investigated. Because the ratio of actual to predicted deaths has risen fast to 53%, the change in testing strategy obviously plays a role, leading to more undetected infections. The policy change to leave nursing homes open may also play a significant part (3/6)
1w ago a sad new record was correctly predicted, but underestimating real dynamics (1750 deaths expected for CW48 vs 2101 found). If this holds we expect another record 2400 and 2560 #COVID19 fatalities in DE in this and next week. I hope it is not another underestimation (4/6).
For completeness, the plot without correction factor, i.e. #livesatrisk based on pre-summer age-specific deaths. This can be viewed as the "ceiling" for mortality prediction. I expect the ratio of real to predicted deaths will not exceed ~70% due to improvements in therapy. (5/6)
The continueing good correlation further supports the use of #livesatrisk plots to allow focus on the most relevant parameter. Ratio of actual deaths to lives remained stable enough for robust results but was rising strongly most likely due to changed test strategy (6/6).
Added note: As always, discussion, doubts and questions very welcome! Age-dependent infection data obtained from RKI. Deaths from ECDC. Age specific mortality calculated using ECDC data from CW10-CW30 and RKI daily report data.
Now #livesatrisk also available for individual federal states of Germany.
https://twitter.com/jakobscarl/status/1334877378821169152?s=21
Please find a website with #livesatrisk data for all German cities and regions under andman.eu. Description in the linked tweet.
https://twitter.com/jakobscarl/status/1335533110348353536?s=21https://t.co/A8soqhB65p
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