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David Henig Profile picture
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4 Dec, 11 tweets, 4 min read
Blunt hardly starts to describe this letter. I've been asked a few times whether business is ready for January 1 and always reply that none I have spoken with are completely confident. So many individual changes within the one big change.
Worth noting that a Free Trade Agreement only sets out the framework for trade relations between countries. Implementation is another matter. Now I hear some such discussions have happened, but as per the deal as a whole, time running out. theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
Just for some Friday afternoon fun I started scanning through the original drafts of an FTA prepared by the EU and UK to get some sense of what might be in text, and what would need operational clarification. Rather a lot of the latter, sorry...
Free Trade Agreements are better than WTO rules, but they are a long way indeed from addressing all trade issues faced by business and individuals in modern economies, particularly given £2 billion a day trade flows.
Be honest, nobody wanted a Friday evening announcement of a trade deal. Sunday late-ish so we can all deal with it on Monday will be fine.
This is no good, I have things to do tomorrow. There's clearly some momentum, but also a fair amount outstanding. Time for wine...
Full story, we agree it is time for the PM to talk with the Commission President. Good. We don't know what will come of that conversation but it had to happen.
Flicking through the ranks of Brexit watchers agreement we're glad it goes to a political level, no agreement on whether this is the forerunner of deal or no-deal. But for deal political level concessions are required from one or both.
It seems likely that the number of outstanding issues is greater than you would normally want if you want to close a deal this weekend. So big ask to get from here to deal in one meeting.

Hoping though that @tconnellyRTE has the full story tomorrow morning.
Worth bearing in mind in terms of a (very moderate) EU view on who may have to concede.
And - few are saying this but the PM announcing tomorrow that we can't reach a deal and all will be fine / prepare for no deal is underpriced. Still 50:50 for me as it has been since day one.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
6 Dec
We need to talk about UK politics. More specifically we need to talk about the absence of opposition to a no-deal Brexit risking Scottish independence, Northern Irish peace, the end of the mass market car industry, more expensive food, and damaged relations with US and EU 1/n
Project fear and the red wall. The first meaning that every serious threat, such as that of Nissan that their plant will be unsustainable, is dismissed with little discussion. The red wall, apparently so angry with Labour about the EU they are afraid to have a position. 2/
Because 'sovereignty' apparently. But a particularly nefarious form of sovereignty in which the normal kind of things you discuss in a Free Trade Agreement - shared rules, access to waters - become when discussed with the EU unacceptable infringements and threats. 3/
Read 18 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Dec
Nobody walks away, but still no progress?
What are deadlines anyway?
No hopes being raised here. Or lowered. Last chance saloon. And what about Northern Ireland?
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Dec
Well, this.

But something else - trust. So many apparently 'extra' EU demands, or indeed the UK refusal, come down to a lack of trust between the parties.

The usually loose rules tied to the preferential access of a Free Trade Agreement rely on trust which isn't present. Yet.. Image
The reason there might be a deal, even in the absence of the normally essential trust, is some underlying belief on both sides that no deal will mean worse relations. And that then is the joint gamble that will be needed by the leaders, and...
The leaders if they find a way forward will then have to sell their joint gamble to their domestic constituencies. I don't think this time the UK can declare outright victory, for EU could then veto. But the PM isn't just going to roll over the ERG. Fine margins. We wait.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Dec
Good to have a couple of real experts explaining outstanding issues in UK-EU talks are not, as the UK government would have it, just fish. Though EU Member States have to show they are fighting for their fishing fleets.
I don't think Fabian has been knowingly optimistic of prospects for a UK-EU deal for months, but he will reflect wider EU thinking.
It seems most likely that yesterday's setback was the UK thinking a concession would solve the whole Level Playing Field issue, and being surprised when it didn't. This appears to be a pattern. But doesn't mean it is unsolvable.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
3 Dec
Reasonable to assume fresh talk of an EU deadline is behind the signs of greater negotiating activity last night. But a deal still, as it has been all year, a 50:50 shot in the hands of one man.

He wanted to be Prime Minister. But not necessarily to make big decisions.
Given how much Ireland has at stake, yes they hope there will be a deal. But not theirs to broker this time round, this is cheerleading.
I suddenly wonder about the UK and EU announcing a deal this weekend then the UK government reintroducing the Internal Market Bill clauses on Northern Ireland next week. UK says here's the deal and keeps Brexiteers happy. What would the EU do?
Read 17 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Dec
This is the false impression that UK officials have had for four and a half years that EU negotiations with third countries always go to the last minute. That's internal negotiations.

Also the belief in this negotiation that the EU will concede if we wait long enough.
Partly the EU's fault for never properly setting a deadline. But also a sign of continuing UK ignorance of trade agreements that thinks a few days from agreement to implementation is in any way possible.

But also - inviting the EU to end talks.
EU approach traditionally is that no third country can ever beat the EU for playing the long game. So if applied to the UK it would be to say we've missed the deadline for January but we'll keep talking and perhaps we'll have an agreement in 2021.
Read 4 tweets

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