How different would the global dynamics have been if COVID-19 had instead been a pandemic flu virus with similar fatality rate? A few thoughts... 1/
https://twitter.com/AmandaKvalsvig/status/1334210156071055361
There are differences between pandemic flu and SARS-CoV-2, of course. In absence of control, serial interval for SARS-CoV-2 (science.sciencemag.org/content/369/65…) is longer than flu (ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…), and evidence SARS-CoV-2 transmission more clustered (sciencedirect.com/science/articl…) 2/ 
The susceptibility profile may also be different. In flu pandemics, susceptibility is often concentrated in younger groups (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20096450/) - for COVID-19, severity/susceptibility concentrated in older groups (e.g. nature.com/articles/s4159…). 3/
A few countries (e.g. South Korea & Japan) have used targeted approaches that account for the clustered dynamics of COVID-19, but many around the world have not (or at least not yet effectively):
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1293472353758871552?s=204/
Many of measures currently being deployed - such as shutting down segments of society - come from the 1918 toolkit, which is why many of the debates are so familiar:
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1279343550161920001?s=205/
Indeed, the approach of shutdown-type measures + strict border restrictions would likely work against pandemic flu - we know this because these measures have also suppressed the 2020 flu season in many places (e.g. academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…) 6/
It's tempting to put control measures in 'flu' boxes and 'coronavirus' boxes, but I suspect the global experience with COVID will also make many countries rethink their plans for a future severe flu pandemic. 7/7
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