Thread by @WStarCampbell

Your Friday @TheWECHU update: Today, there are 65 new cases of COVID-19 in Windsor-Essex. That's the highest single-day case increase of the second wave in the region. Another LTC home is in outbreak: Chartwell St. Clair Beach in Tecumseh where a resident has tested positive.

The transmission source for a whopping 58 new cases are still under investigation by public health unit staff. Five are close contacts of confirmed cases and two are attributed to community spread.

The seven-day moving average is "hitting a point we have never hit," even in the worst part of the first wave, says Medical Officer of Health Dr. Wajid Ahmed. The epi-curve is steep, which "means we are doing really badly."

New predictive data is being done by @UWindsor researchers every three days. It monitors wastewater for evidence of COVID-19. Ahmed says the data shows we will likely see a further increase in cases in the coming days.

#Windor and #Essex County is seeing 70 cases per 100,000 population. The threshold for the province's red zone status was 40 per 100,000.

In the last two weeks, 21 per cent of cases reported were young people ages 0 to 19 years. Note, that age category encompasses twice the age range of every other group on this graph, aside from the 80+ category.

Ahmed said we are seeing a proportional increase in the number of people contracting COVID through community spread. Household contacts are also a major exposure source, meaning one person with COVID-19 is infecting everyone/most people they live with.

The number of active outbreaks is much higher than ever before in the region. The graph speaks for itself.

COVID-19 hospitalizations have risen significantly of late. The acute care capacity exceeds 80 per cent occupancy, but keep in mind there are roughly 30 beds unoccupied on a 60-bed unit at @WRHospital Ouellette Campus where the 7th floor has an active outbreak.

The local COVID case fatality rate is 0.8 per cent in general, but 13.9 per cent in long-term care and retirement homes. The WECHU has said keeping the # of cases in the community low will keep COVID out of facilities housing vulnerable populations.

Here's Dr. Ahmed's summary. The effective mean R0 value is 1.07 — each case is infecting another person, so case counts will stay steadily high and even rise slightly. We want to see that number at less than one, he says, which would indicate the spread is declining.

"People should not go out... If 90 per cent of people or 95 per cent of people follow that, we are winning," Ahmed said. Limiting close contacts, "that's where the key is." Individuals should look at what's expected of them under the red zone, not just what businesses are open.

"It doesn't matter how many resources you put into case and contact management... If you keep seeing 60 cases... then no amount of resources can contain it," Ahmed said.

Theresa Marentette, @TheWECHU CEO said case and contact management requires a level of expertise and most of the work is being done by medical professionals, many of them nurses. The job requires more than phone calls, and cannot be done by volunteers.