THREAD: where are we with Covid in the UK?

Read on and find out... (16.5 tweets)

TLDR: Everything mostly going in right direction, but caution needed and some warning signs on horizon...

@IndependentSage
Firstly, cases are continuing to come down in Scotland, NI and England. This is good. Welsh cases have gone up a bit over last 2 weeks tho, a few weeks after their firebreak ended, since when they've had fewest restrictions in UK.

Note that...
...Some of increase is cos Wales is testing more (GOOD) but some is more transmission, as seen in recent (small) increase in positivity rates from case data *and* ONS infection survey.

Coming out of restrictions is hard, & Wales adding some tonight. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-…
Looking at Scotland by restriction Levels is interesting. 2 weeks after highest regions went into Lvl 4 (sim to England lockdown) quicker reduction there. Everywhere else flattish for last 4 weeks. Is Scotland happy to be stable over Xmas at lowest UK rates?
For England, it's v relevant as Scottish Levels 1-3 are very similar to the new tiers 1-3. If England follows Scottish experience, perhaps post lockdown we will stabilise rather than continue reducing. (see later tweet).
Looking at English regions, all regions are now steadily decreasing. This is seen in positivity rates too although there, London, SE & East seem to have flattened off in last few days.
Because people who will become reported cases over next week or so are mosly infected already, expect cases to continue to fall this week. Might well get under 10K cases in England by next Friday...

NOTE the lines are not a fitted model or prediction! just back of envelope calc
Middle December situation onwards depends on how new tiers work. If we are like Scotland, might see cases stabilise. But 10K a day is still *high* (where we were beginning Oct), esp coming into Xmas. Hopefully cases will keep reducing - esp in tier 3.
Hospitalisations coming down in all nations and all English regions. GOOD.
Deaths continued to increase to 20th Nov (deaths registered with Covid) & in England looks like we are now about to start declining (GOOD).
In SAGE minutes released last week, they concluded that the old tier 3 was effective in reducing cases, old tier 2 slowed growth but less good at reversing it and that tier 1 had little impact. (caveat: correlation, not causation). NI lockdown v effective.
Although all English regions have reducing cases, esp many new tier 3 regions, the number of people *in hospital* in North remains high. I imagine part of reason many places in new tier 3 is to try to drive hospital numbers down much lower.
What else can help as England emerges from Lockdown? Better contact tracing of course!! We called for reform during lockdown. Didn't happen, *but* test and trace is getting quicker (GOOD) but not reaching more cases (BAD).
and *then* mass testing which was trialed 1st in Liverpool is now making its away across country. Last 2 days has been about 10% of tests conducted. Results of mass testing need to be reported separately from symptomatic tests!
This is because otherwise we won't know if future rising case numbers are because of more transmission or more testing. Positivity rates will also be v hard to interpret! We will need to rely on hospital admissions mainly which is a lagging indicator... concerning!
So to sum up, don't expect big changes in trajectories over next week. Keep an eye on Wales... And next week I'll see how Europe doing after lockdown and US after Thanksgiving... END
PS for the PDF of today's presentation, an updated vaccine statement and an updated universities statement check out our website! independentsage.org

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More from @chrischirp

28 Nov
THREAD on new tiers & some perspective:

Lots of discussion over fairness of tier allocation and "balance" between economy and lives.

Let's remember where we were a few months ago...
Over the summer we were average about 10 new cases / 100K people / week. Quarantine from foreign destinations was triggered if they were above 20/100K cases. The *lowest* area in mainland England right now is at 59/100K (Cornwall). Almost everywhere is over 100/100K.
The rule of 6 was brought in across England on 14th September. Manchester went into tough restrictons on 16th Sept with case rate of 100/100K. From September to November the govt was trying to "balance" the economy and lives - against scientific advice to lockdown.
Read 8 tweets
16 Nov
THREAD: In this piece for @IanDunt 4 weeks ago, I wrote about the "relentless doubling" of Covid deaths in England & that any new measures would not prevent deaths over the coming 4 weeks because they would mostly be among people who already had Covid. politics.co.uk/comment-analys…
Given that relentless doubling of deaths, I wrote "It's likely 2,000 people will die over the next two weeks and 4,000 the two weeks after that.". Sadly, it was even worse. 2,553 died in the two weeks to 1st Nov & 4,328 have died over the last 2 weeks... (coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths)
A Sept 21st circuit break as recommended by SAGE could have prevented many of those deaths. I am v glad we started lockdown on 5th November but it was NOT soon enough to help the thousands who will die over the next 2 weeks. It also won't be as effective after missing half term.
Read 6 tweets
6 Nov
THREAD: quick look at how some European countries are doing & what we can learn from restrictions... NB there are general "work from home" advisories in all countries, but not clear how much people are. Slight differences in mixing rules. Thanks to @lmortshepherd for the charts!
1. Netherlands - cases went up rapidly from Sept & they tried regional curfews on bars & restaurants. These became national curfews but cases kept going up. Partial lockdown (schools + uni open) started mid October. 2 weeks later cases peaked and are now reducing. Image
2. France - Again cases started rising in Set and regional bar & restaurant closures were tried. Then national curfews. These were not stopping the spread and lockdown started a week ago - schools open. Today they had another record case day but early days. Image
Read 6 tweets
5 Nov
THREAD: on lockdowns, mitigation, herd immunity strategies. I have a *lot* of problems with this article by Lord Sumption in the Guardian today - so I've decided to do a thread on them. amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
1. Just going to start by saying that no one thinks lockdowns are a good thing and everyone agrees they have serious & bad consequences. They are a last resort measure. I agree with Lord Sumption that they should be avoided if at all possible! But that is about all we agree on!
2. He starts off by saying "Suppose there is nothing that governments can do to stop the spread of Covid-19. What then?". That's his premise. But many countries have shown there ARE things you can do to stop spread. China, S Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, NZ, Uruguay...
Read 23 tweets
23 Oct
THREAD: where we are with covid in UK, particularly England, right now ... inc schools and circuit breaks... based on my @IndependentSage briefing today (which you can watch here if you want )
Confirmed UK cases still going steadily up - doubling every 2 weeks or so - faster end of Sept and bit slower last 2 weeks. Of course reliant on testing so take with pinch of salt.
Cases continuing to increase in England, NI and Wales. 2 weeks into central belt restirction in Scotland and we're seeing a flattening. Remember impact on cases takes at least a week to show in case numbers. Keep an eye on NI next week and Wales in two weeks...
Read 19 tweets
15 Oct
THREAD: personal thoughts on tiers, circuit breakers, restrictions, R (ENGLAND)

My calcs based on SAGE notes (bit.ly/3lTraqv) & SpiM paper on circuit breaker (bit.ly/2T0p6AA)

TLDR: 2 week circuit breaker NOW, then enough restrictions/FTTIS to keep R below 1
Cases are rising across England. SAGE estimate R i s1.2 -1.5 & not below 1.2 anywhere. Although North highest (1), everywhere rising. Plotting each region with start point at first week with over 20 cases/ 100K people/week shows that trajectories similar (2) - all on same course
All charts below assume simple exponential growth or decay (based on R) till end Nov. V v simple but illustrate point! I use hospital admissions as not dependent on testing. Back of envelope, don't take numbers literally.

Overall, doubling rate currently about 2 weeks (R=1.3).
Read 14 tweets

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