Indexers need to buy ~120M $TSLA shares before 12/21. They will likely buy them Wed-Fri 12/16-12/18. Indexers can’t buy early because it could lead to dispersion (deviation from bm). There is no way of knowing how many TSLA shares traders have bought in front of indexers.
2/ We do know $TSLA has run up 47% since announcement vs 16% of float needed by indexers. On avg, 49M TSLA shares have traded per day since S&P announced. In the 10 days pre-announcement, 27M shares traded per day. Over 13 days, that’s 290M extra shares. 
3/ No one knows how many shares were sold multiple times the last two weeks by traders. We don’t know how many of these $TSLA shares traded will be made available to indexers between 12/16-12/18. We know indexers need 120M shares. There are still 7 more days of potential buying.
4/ If fewer than 120M shares are made available by traders who bought shares since 11/16, $TSLA rises sharply. If more than 120M shares are supplied by traders who bought since 11/16, then TSLA falls. IMO TSLA peaks at b/t $650-$690, then falls 10-20%. But no one knows for sure.
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