OK let's look at this for a second. Shall we? In simple terms, well 1st neither of the countries Daniel mentions has a land border with the EU or are in direct competition on fisheries. Neither of those agreements was breaking ties then trying to rebind without standards etc. 1/7
Secondly we have the whole piece of geography and trade gravity and how EU-UK trades more goods with each other than the other two countries combined do with the EU. So any changes which unduly affect either side are a big game changers. That's why they are both digging in 2/7
Then there is time. EU-Japan started making moves 18 yrs ago.
Mutual Recognition Agreement 2002, Anti-competitive Activities Agreement, Science & Technology Agreement 2009, etc etc & it STILL took 4 years to get an FTA agreed & implemented for a lot less trade 3/7
Again with South Korea. 1st Agreement Mutual Administrative Assistance signed in 97. Framework Agreement on Trade and Co-operation 2001. The EU-SK FTA negotiations started in 2007 & it wasn't fully implemented until 13 Dec 2015! Even provisional implementation took 4 years! 4/7
So if it takes years to do a full trade agreement no wonder it hasn't been easy bearing in mind we couldn't start negotiations fully with EU or anyone else until AFTER the Withdrawal Agreement that was only last Oct and passed in January. 5/7
And yes we were members of the EU so a lot of things are the same like standards but things like tariffs, governance, recognition etc are trade fundamentals and aren't just copy and paste, nor is that what either side want. 6/7
So this has nothing to do with the emotive clap trap the author uses about the EU seeing the UK as a renegade province & everything to do with the complexity of trade negotiations and the lack of time available. Either way for biz and households in NI & GB #WeNeedADeal 7/Ends
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OK. Let's fact check this. Will tariffs impact on shop prices or not? Well on the the amount we trade now with the EU Supermarkets & their customers face £3.1 billion a year of tariffs on food & drink unless a free trade deal is reached between the UK and the European Union 1/8
UK grocery sector is one of the most competitive in the world and operates on tight margins to offer customers the best value possible. Remember up to Q4 2018 there was a record 5 yrs shop price deflation. That means no room to absorb costs 2/8
That means, if there is no deal the increase in tariffs will leave retailers with nowhere to go other than to raise the price of food.
Many non-food retailers will also see large tariff bills for EU products, meaning the total cost to retail & customers will be even higher 3/8
🚨BREXIT THREAD🚨 Today the NI Business Brexit Working Group published its response to the UKG Command paper on the NI Protocol called implementing the NI Protocol: What Business in NI needs & why. So let's look at what we have said: 1/11
The overarching finding of the report is that while progress has been made & the ambitions of the UKG are laudable, there is a need for technical detail to allow business to prepare for the changes that will come into force on 1 January 2021 and that detail needs to come now 2/11
Part of that detail is a need for detail of how goods flow both ways across the Irish sea as well how the integrated nature of the whole island economy can be maintained. Our economy is built on those integrated supply chains across these islands. 3/11
1. 🚨THREAD🚨👇👇 Brexit might seem like a distant memory but its still going. Today along with @CBINI@UFUHQ I will be giving evidence to the @CommonsNIAC on the NI Protocol & if there will be Unfettered Access. TL;DR there won't parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/66… So what will I be saying?
2. 1stly retail and consumers in NI don't have room to absorb higher costs if there is friction. Retail is a high vol low profit margin industry c2% for some major retailers so no wiggle room. NI households have half of the discretionary income of GB so they can't absorb rises
3. The first iteration of the NI Protocol had very little friction between NI and GB and vice versa. Now there are new regulatory, jurisdictional and enforcement issues to the free flow of goods including different customs arrangement and remember friction = cost
Brief thread on the current deal: 👇👇👇Apologies that I am late to the party on this one but I've been helping out HQ & I have been consulting with members & govt & trying to get my head around what new deal actually means as we had no prior notice or consultation soooooo.... 1/
so firstly this deal is better than no deal for our members and it does guarantee access to the Irish and EU markets for NI business which is hugely important...... but and this is a huge but............. 2/
We have always said that there was a need for unfettered access to both the EU market & the GB market for us not just to thrive but to survive after Brexit. It is not an either or equation, we need both. This should not be news we have said this since day one 3/
Thread: There is a very real danger that plans will be put forward in the next weeks that will not be alternative arrangements to Backstop but simply alternatives/mitigations to a no-deal #Brexit. That is not enough for NI biz. Our tests haven't changed to protect our economy 1/
We need unfettered access to UK & EU markets, we need no tariffs, no new VAT complications, we need no infrastructure or delays at the border, we need no new sps checks, controls, costs or red tape for biz/ consumers moving products across the border, over to GB into the EU27 2/
Checks moved away from the border are still checks imposing costs and red tape and damage supply chains. Consumers in GB and NI would pay the price for this. DAERA estimate they would need to do over x100 the staff. 1 retailer alone would need 35 DAERA staff to check goods 3/