This was one of the most devastating weeks in USA since pandemic began 9 months ago.
-Infections set single-day record >226,000 new cases
-Hospitalizations doubled since November >100,000
-Single day record deaths >3,100
-7-day avg for new deaths >2,000
Imagine a September 11 every single day - that is what we might have for the rest of 2020.
We spent >$10 trillion after that event; Yet we cannot get Congress to do their jobs NOW and allocate emergency funds despite a body count that is 100X .
Its unconscionable...
There are hopes for a modest rescue package, but its way too little and very very late
The GOP has suddenly rediscovered "the deficit" but we all know posturing. There are never any concerns about deficits when it comes to unfunded tax cuts or for war, but emergency Covid relief suddenly they matter
As hospitals get overrun, this current spike is going to lead to some radical responses by States, Cities and the Feds. Watch for the unemployment rate to get much worse due to this, and people's emergency needs to get more acute.
Life will not get back to normal and the economy will not recover until we get the pandemic under control. And we are still months away from widespread vaccine distribution.
And, a small cadre of misinformed people are making it much worse
I hope the new administration will do what must be done to get this under control.
Regardless, we must brace for the worst months of the pandemic -- the ‘darkest’ days are ahead, and it will get much worse before it gets better.
Mask up, follow the science, protect yourself and your family -- we are closer to the end then the beginning -- but only if we behave intelligently about this!
The difference between relative degrees of incompetency
I love Fourth of July. Many Americans are going to BBQ either way, but many more of us will if it’s safe. If 70% to 80% of us take the vaccine, you can pretty much invite anyone you want. (Scott Atlas, the Rudy Giuliani of medicine, is not invited.)
Thanks in part to Bill Gates, vaccines are ALREADY being produced at scale, as they await approval. Even the most rabid Windows-hating Mac lifer must admit that @BillGates is a hero in this fight.
"Survivorship bias tends to distort data in only one direction, by making the results seem better than they actually are. This is because fund closures are often a result of underperformance."
Bruce Bartlett is a former Republican who served as a domestic policy adviser to Ronald Reagan and as a Treasury official under George H. W. Bush. A longtime observer and commenter on economic and political affairs in Washington, D.C.
And yes, I spot the hedge in the way its phrased: "Its a bubble but it's not ready to pop" covers all bases.
Blow up? We told you it was a bubble!
Rally? We told you it was not ready to pop!
Not really sure what the value of this duality is to investors...
here is why: We ignore the simple reality that the future is inherently unknown, and unknowable.
Once when we start talking about Uncertainty, what we really mean is our confidence in our flawed models is fading. The optimism we usually shown cracks.